From the first months of the war, sanctions became one of the levers on which great hopes were placed. The Russian side has been declaring for almost a year that they do not act at all and even benefit the Russian economy. International experts express different opinions on this matter. Some of them agree with the Russians, some don’t. Are the sanctions effective or not?
Fell on their knees, but did not lie down
Economists say that the biggest effects of sanctions are felt during the first months after their introduction. Three months is a critical period, during which some enterprises and developed schemes cease to function. However, at the next stage, there is a revival among internal processes of import substitution.
In Russia, import substitution has worked in most areas over the past year. This helped to keep the macroeconomic situation in the country from a complete collapse, which was possible, but not mandatory.
The consequences of rapid and urgent import substitution are always the same: the selection of domestic analogs leads to lower-quality manufactured goods and products. The greater collapse in finding replacements or ultra-fast establishing of production capacities, the more it affects quality.
So, at the moment, Russia has coped with the first task: not to stop production in most directions.
After the exit from the markets of those companies that previously worked closely with exports, the new companies occupied the vacant places.
However, this does not apply to ordinary people. The country faced such sanctions and restrictions that has been seriously affected their standards of living. Economists note that the situation of ordinary Russians will only worsen in the coming years, even with the most optimistic variants of the development of events. However, the Kremlin doesn’t even care about the interests of the people, so they will not be a reason for internal changes.
“It’s only for our benefit!”
This is exactly the slogan that Moscow constantly expresses in its messages to the people. However, the real indicators are not so great. For example, the budget deficit in January 2023 is 14 times larger than last year.
There are two main reasons:
- Loss of profits from the sale of oil and oil products.
- Growth of costs for conducting the special military operation.
The authorities ensure that everything is under control and that they take timely measures. The following situation can serve as an example of the relevance of changes: due to sanctions, the Ford plant in the Leningrad region was closed, and a sawmill was opened at its base.
American senators are in despair because they will not see Syzran anymore
In addition to economic restrictions, Russia also opposes sanctions against specific individuals imposed by the West. For example, the Kremlin prepared a response in the form of a ban on entry into Russia for Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, and 75 other American politicians along with their families. Such a restriction looks ridiculous. Most of the people on the list could easily afford to buy real estate in Russia, but they never showed a desire to even come here as tourists.
Front VS Economy
There are more and more opinions that economic sanctions and restrictions don’t make sense anymore, since the Putin regime did not fall from them. Therefore, the West must focus exclusively on military and economic support for Ukraine.
However, experts indicate that the most critical stage of the war has left the acute phase when the result completely depended on the situation on the battlefield. Now a long phase has begun, where two economic powers oppose each other: Ukraine + the West VS Russia. In order to move in the right direction, it is necessary not only to support the Ukrainian economy but also to weaken the potential of the Russian Federation as much as possible. This is rightly considered the least bloody path to the end of the war.
