The essence of the war, which has been going on for a year, is the confrontation between NATO and Russia. This moment became the point of conflict, and the end of the conflict depends on its solution.
Ukrainians see guarantees of security and territorial integrity in membership in the alliance. “For” and “against” in this situation are significant. Serious geopolitical forces are behind each of them.
Old romance
Relations between the North Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine have been developing for a long time and largely explain what is happening now in Eastern Europe.
The most important stages were:
- 2009 – The Ukraine-NATO Commission monitors the process of Euro-Atlantic integration. After that, Ukrainian forces begin to participate in NATO missions.
- 2017 – the Verkhovna Rada approved the law on membership in the Alliance as a priority direction of development.
- 2020 – granting the status of a member of the NATO Enhanced Opportunities Program.
- 2022 – full support of Ukraine.
Positive signals
Experts emphasize that the de facto alliance has welcomed Ukraine because it has become the main instrument of confrontation between the USA and the Russian Federation. The main sign of this is Zelenskyy’s invitation to the alliance leaders’ summit in July 2023 to discuss Ukraine’s security guarantees.
What could stop it?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become the largest in the last 70 years. It indirectly involved a huge number of countries. The financial and military support of both sides has provoked a global crisis that will deepen every year. Therefore, the whole world is interested in a quick end to the war. The President of Ukraine is under constant pressure to negotiate with the Kremlin to conclude a peace agreement.
If they stop providing Kyiv with tactical and strategic weapons, this step will become the only possible one. Political experts are sure that one of the main demands of the Russian Federation will be Ukraine’s neutrality regarding NATO membership.
This scenario of the development of events is now considered the most likely since the damage from further open confrontation exceeds the benefit of moving NATO’s borders deep into eastern Eurasia.
