The negotiations with the Russians regarding the peaceful release of the nuclear plant have long been stalled. Russia has made it clear that it will not leave the nuclear power plant without a fight. Therefore, this time the Head of the IAEA did not come to reach an understanding on this issue. Now the goal is different – the safety and normal work of observers from the mission.
After us the deluge
Previous experience shows that it is not necessary to hope for a normal retreat of the Russian Armed Forces. When they surrendered the territories near Kherson and Kharkiv, the “mandatory program” was the destruction of all possible energy facilities. The same tactics are expected regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Russians are expected to act according to the following algorithm:
- everything that can be stolen and exported for use in the industry will be exported to the territory of the Russian Federation;
- auxiliary and related equipment, which cannot be removed for further operation, will be dismantled and removed as scrap;
- auxiliary equipment that cannot be dismantled will be destroyed on-site.
Murderers, but not suicides
The most dangerous objects at the station are the reactors, but the Russians will not dare to destroy them for the following reasons:
- Firstly, they understand that this will not change their position in the war and will not lead to victory. On the contrary, it will significantly worsen the position and status of the Russian Federation in the world.
- Secondly, such actions would lead to the loss of many military units of Russia itself.
- Thirdly, the destruction of the reactors is a “task with an asterisk”, because they are reliably protected and designed in such a way that it would be extremely difficult and very expensive to do so.
Instead, a lot of non-critical equipment will be destroyed. Without it, the electricity generation system will break down. It will be a blow to Ukraine’s economy, but it will not harm the reactors.
One step to an international scandal
Currently, observers from the IAEA are constantly on the territory of the ZNPP. When this was negotiated with the Russian Federation in the fall, certain periods were highlighted, after which such specialists should be rotated to others. However, Russia demonstrated that the agreements with it are not always meaningful, as experts were not allowed to be changed on time. Sometimes the postponement reached several weeks.
In fact, the IAEA specialists became prisoners of the station, who were not allowed to leave its territory. These are civilian qualified specialists, citizens of another country, who legally arrived at an important facility within the framework of international agreements.
There is no scandal in this regard yet, but the situation is quite strange and can cause significant publicity and consequences. Of course, the Russian side also understands this very well, so there must be very good reasons for such behavior. The head of the IAEA, Grossi, is going to listen to these reasons and ensure that there are no such accidents in the future.
