American intelligence has stated that Ukraine will not achieve significant success during the spring counterattack. In addition, the USA believes that the Russian Federation will begin an offensive in several directions at once with the establishment of dry weather. The head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Budanov commented on this. He also spoke about the liberation of Crimea.
Experts talk a lot about the decreasing of military aid to Ukraine from other countries in the case of an unsuccessful counterattack. Moreover, considerable pressure will begin to find a compromise between Kyiv and Moscow. Budanov noted that these are false hopes of the enemy because the support will not end even in case of minor successes.
He also rejected the idea that the insufficient supply of weapons this spring could force Kyiv to refuse the counterattack. The operation will take place in any case; the plan will be simply based on what is available.
Much ado about nothing
Another controversial moment is too much attention to the counterattack in the media. Budanov says that it has a dual effect:
- A negative point is that too much information is leaking out. Besides, the moral pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine is growing.
- A positive point is the moral “loosening” of Russian soldiers. The fact that they are increasingly afraid of an attack can be seen in public forums and social networks.
So, the result of excessive publicity is not as great as some people think, because the negative and positive aspects balance each other.
Crimea as a final chord
Budanov also noted a very important thing: the scenario with the liberation of Crimea in the last turn will not necessarily happen. Perhaps it will be liberated earlier than all the territories of the Donbas or Luhansk region. The main thing is that the final chord of this war will be the last step in the liberation of Ukrainian territories up to the borders of 1991.
