Ahead of an expected counterattack by Ukraine and more than 14 months after, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there has been a marked shift in how the war-torn country can regain control of its annexed territory. It is now, nine years after the annexation of Crimea, that the Ukrainian military is talking confidently about the return of the peninsula, and foreign experts are not only not arguing with them, but predicting specific dates when this will happen.
USA: A summer offensive and a prolonged siege
Retired USA Marine Colonel Mark Kanchian, a senior adviser to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), shared his view of the situation with Newsweek. He believes, that Ukraine’s return of Crimea is quite possible and predicts, that an active offensive by Ukrainian troops will last for a month, which will then develop into a “prolonged siege” phase. In his view, it will be at the end of the summer of this year.
He stressed, that this has now become more likely, because the Ukrainian army has gained a lot of equipment, experience and training. The USA military officer believes, that Ukraine will try to cut off Crimea, as soon as possible, by taking away the strategically important bridge across the Kerch Strait. It is the inability to resupply from Russia, that will be key to liberating the peninsula.
Key drones
Ukraine’s first line of attack in its attempt to free Crimea is likely to involve the use of drones, Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow and adviser at the Center for a New American Security, told Newsweek.
“Drones will be the first wave of the attack, and the Russians are very concerned about that … it will be a large-scale strike and the Russians will have no choice but to try to defend themselves against these drones,” Bendett believes.
According to him, Ukraine has been testing the Russian air defence system in Crimea for months by sending drones. This has been of great concern to Russia, as a large number of Ukrainian drones are capable of destroying the Russian air defence system and depriving their army of ammunition. In addition, drone attacks would expose Russian positions and then be pursued by long-range missile strikes by the air force.
Ukraine: mathematically certain optimism
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak is confident, that Ukrainian troops will be in Crimea in just five months.
“This may be too optimistic, but it is optimism that is mathematically verified. Russia does not have enough resources to contain the situation. The logic of war is absolutely obvious… and we will definitely be able to talk about a completely effective future for Crimea,” Podolyak said in an interview with Krym.Realii.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with The Atlantic, that Ukraine would take Crimea without a fight. According to him, it will be a “politico-military” liberation of the peninsula, not just a military counteroffensive. “After blocking roads, railways and waterways to the peninsula and targeting military infrastructure with drones, we can assume that many Russians, especially recent immigrants, will be convinced that they would be better off living elsewhere.”
A Yellow Terrorist Threat Level has been in effect in parts of Crimea since 11 April 2022. On 24 April, there were explosions in Crimea.
