After the end of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, approximately one million Ukrainian people who were granted temporary shelter in Poland are planning to return to their homeland. This will inevitably result in a significant loss of personnel and cause considerable problems across various sectors of the economy.
Refugees who save others
Since February 2022, Poland has faced an unprecedented flow of refugees. Thanks to the efforts of Russian propaganda, the opinion that the Ukrainians undermined the economy, caused inflation, and so on, was constantly “spread” among the masses.
In fact, Poland is one of those countries that offered refugees from Ukraine a one-time assistance of $75. However, they were left to take care of themselves after that. This resulted in the closure of many positions in the labor market, as Ukrainian workers, mainly women, were willing to work for minimum wages.
“Our people are everywhere”
The second contributing factor is the increase in GDP. It happened thanks to Ukrainians. 1,5 million permanent residents have chosen to meet their needs in Poland. These people have spent funds earned either in Ukraine or abroad.
According to the statistics, over 33% of businesses have Ukrainian employees on their staff. The industrial sector is expected to suffer the most due to the significant number of Ukrainians currently working there, accounting for one in every five employees. The potential outflow of Ukrainian workers could lead to serious failures in this industry.
At least something positive
The main positive factor for a mass return to the homeland is a potential decrease in inflation, resulting in lower prices due to a significant drop in demand. This will primarily affect the housing market, which saw a 50% prices increase in 2022 due to high demand.
It is impossible to maintain such a level without a million people living with the status of temporary shelter and lacking permanent housing.
Many business owners are anxiously waiting for the end of the war and the return of Ukrainians to their homes. It’s clear that the Polish economy will encounter challenging times following this.
