Grain deal extension: why did Russia agree?

“The grain deal between the UN, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia has been extended until 18 July. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said this the day before, specifying, that Turkish ships will be able to enter at the ports of Mykolayiv and Olviyya in Mykolayiv Region. He also said that he was grateful to his “Russian friends” for not preventing Turkish ships from entering these ports.

“I wish, that this solution, which is vital for the smooth functioning of global food supply chains and especially for facilitating access to grain for countries in need, will be beneficial for all parties,” Erdoğan said. And he also thanked the Ukrainian president and the UN secretary-general “for their constructive cooperation”.

As Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov noted, 30.4m tonnes of agricultural products have already been shipped to the world. He reminded, that since mid-April the Russian Federation started to limit the work of this initiative, and since May it has actually blocked it by refusing to register new fleets and conduct inspections of fleets, that go to Ukrainian ports for loading.

The United States, for its part, welcomed the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Vedant Patel, deputy press secretary at the US State Department, noted how vital it was to keep global food and grain prices low. At the same time, he recalled US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s words, that the West does not need to remind Russia every few weeks “to keep its promises and stop using hunger as a weapon in the war against Ukraine”.

He added, that the world needs a “grain deal” as well as an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, which would allow farmers to return to their fields, get agricultural trade back on track and immediately and significantly improve global food security.

Experts explain, why Russia has made so-called concessions in this matter. If the Russian Federation closes now the sea corridors, that are under its control, the passage of ships to and from Ukrainian ports will still be possible along the route along the Romanian coast and past the Danube bed – away from the positions of the Russian fleet. And there will be no Russian control over these vessels. This means, that not only grain, but anything else can be transported on them. And if there is a political decision of the Western countries to launch such navigation, it will be launched. Therefore, the extension of the deal for Russia is an understandable step to keep control over shipping to and from Ukrainian ports.

The political factor also played a role: extending the deal adds image points for Erdoğan, who needs to win the second round. Russia has made no secret of its support for him in the President elections.

In July 2022, the UN and Turkey signed an agreement to export Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea to help overcome the global food crisis caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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