The counterattack is ongoing. In the information space, a natural double situation is observed. The Ukrainian side claims significant progress while the Russian side claims the opposite. However, the truth may lie somewhere in between. It is clear that the situation at the front has changed. What it is now, and what the further course of events depends on, read on.
Who will surprise?
The advantage in battles is always on the side of the one who constantly surprises the enemy. That is why both the Russians and the Ukrainians constantly change their tactics.
According to military experts, current battles follow a similar pattern to those in World War II, with direct attacks aimed at gaining more operational space and ultimately surrounding enemy forces.
History is cyclical
Another parallel is being noted between the present situation and that of the 1940s, where the Russian military leaders claimed to effortlessly defeat well-equipped enemy forces with minimal losses. However, it was evident that these claims were untrue then, and the same is true now.
According to the Wehrmacht, losses of the Soviet army in minefields amounted to 10-90% of the equipment of the first wave. It is probable that this figure still falls within this range.
Trumps of Russia
Several advantages can be attributed to the Russian army, including:
– control over dominant heights, from which it is easier to conduct defense;
– strong means of radio-electronic warfare to obtain information about the location of radio-electronic means, control systems of troops and enemy weapons;
– advantage in the number of artillery;
– superiority in aviation – a very important factor;
– anti-tank guided missiles;
– large mined areas.
However, there has been discussion in Russia regarding the necessity of a new round of mass mobilization, leading to the conclusion that the Russian leadership is under pressure.
Kakhovka as a weapon
The Russians also gained an advantage due to the undermining of the Kakhovka HPP. Significant flooding of the Kherson region has reduced the territories where battles are conducted, and therefore military units can be transferred to more relevant directions. This ensured the compaction of Russian positions and fire in the attack zone.
Priority tasks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
For its part, for an effective counterattack, the Ukrainian army must solve the following priority tasks:
– capturing dominant heights, or encircling enemy units;
– blocking of the logistics networks of the Russians along the railway tracks – Tokmak, Polohy, Melitopol.
There are successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, although they are achieved more slowly than we would like.
