Cross the red line: What will Ukraine seek at the NATO summit?

Ukraine will push for a political decision at the NATO summit in July on whether the country will join the alliance. Kiev applied to join the alliance last September, but NATO member states have long debated whether to allow Ukraine to join the alliance. A number of Western countries have stressed, that talking about any place for Kiev in the Alliance now is only possible after Ukraine has won the war unleashed by Russia.

Kiev insists on an early confirmation of its aspirations for NATO membership, Ukraine’s ambassador to the alliance, Natalia Halibarenko, said. “Ukraine wants some kind of invitation or at least a commitment to consider the terms and conditions of our membership,” she said.

For NATO leaders, who will gather in Vilnius in mid-July for the alliance’s annual summit, Ukraine’s aspirations for membership will be the most politically sensitive item on the agenda. Halibarenko, who has represented Ukraine in NATO since 2021, is well aware of this. She explains, that for many countries, any commitment to the issue “is a red line, because they feel it creates a burden for them”.

“I can understand the idea – I can’t support it,” Halibarenko said, while stressing, that “we are realists, we are not insisting right now that we be given membership.

Both Kiev and its many allies on NATO’s eastern flank have been pressing the alliance to go beyond the 2008 agreement reached at the Bucharest summit. In particular it stipulates, that in order to become a NATO member, Ukraine must first receive a so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP). But recently, officials from several member states of the Alliance have floated the idea that a compromise in Vilnius could be to drop the requirement for Ukraine to have a MAP on its way to membership.

For his part, US President Joe Biden, quibbling about the need for a MAP for Ukraine to join NATO, replied, that he did not support labels.

“I’m not going to simplify it. I think they’ve done everything as far as demonstrating military coordination capability, but there’s a whole question: is their system safe? Is it not corrupt? Does it meet all the standards,” the US leader said, adding, “I think they will. I think they can. But it’s not automatic.”

Halibarenko, on the other hand, commented on Biden’s remarks as follows:

“I think the president is right to say, that there is a lot of work to be done, but other countries admitted to the alliance have had their shortcomings, and some, such as Finland, have had to skip the MAP process.”

In any case, Kiev will continue to advocate a closer relationship with NATO – while recognising the existing limitations, the ambassador stressed.

“I’m trying to be pragmatic,” Halibarenko said, praising the expected NATO aid package, a “defence transition plan” to help modernise Ukraine’s armed forces.

Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO believes, that if Kiev does not receive an invitation to join the Alliance in Vilnius, it will be a bad signal, but not the “end of the world”. “So not today … but then maybe tomorrow, next year in Washington, who knows?” she said.

And just a few hours ago it was reported, that France had changed its position on Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The French government intends to support the granting of membership to Kiev,” Le Monde reported.

The possibility was discussed at a meeting of the Defence Council at the Elysee Palace. French politicians believe, that such an approach would increase pressure on Russia and discourage it from continuing the war or, if the conflict ends, prevent any new aggression.

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