When a quick counterattack will begin?


There is increasing dissatisfaction with the slow progress of Ukraine’s counterattack in the West. The pace does not meet the expectations, the formation of which was contributed by both Western partners and Ukraine itself. Claims that were made regarding the start of the offensive have now resulted in widespread disappointment. However, the focus should be on the political and military aspects of the situation, rather than just the mood of society.


About successes

According to the Ukrainian side, they report daily successes. However, these achievements are so insignificant that it is challenging to consider them as real progress. Moving forward by only 50 meters or even 1 kilometer per day cannot be regarded as significant progress, especially considering tens of thousands of kilometers of occupied land.

Nevertheless, high-ranking officials in Kyiv periodically state that the real counterattack hasn’t begun yet, only the initial preparatory stage is currently underway. During Prigozhin’s rebellion, significant developments took place as the Ukrainian army was able to make a 2 km advance on the flanks near Bakhmut.


Kilometers to the surroundings

However, the military command of Ukraine notes that the advance is taking place in conditions of superiority in equipment, weapons, and the number of soldiers in favor of Russia. The immediate objective is not to capture Bakhmut but to surround the Russian forces stationed there. This requires cutting off their supply routes and implementing a blockade.


Who is unhappy?

Some officials from Europe and America are expressing their dissatisfaction with the current pace of the attack. They feel that the Ukrainians should apply more pressure on the enemy. While the initial stage demonstrated that Ukrainian troops are reasonably well-prepared, there is a lack of adequate equipment and weapons for achieving quick results.

Ukrainian military commanders do not dare to risk the quantitative composition of assault units, which are already quite exhausted, in order to meet the needs of their Western partners. However, some military analysts believe that such “savings” of human resources will turn into more significant losses in the long run.


Without losing politeness

There is a growing belief that Ukraine needs to make significant progress on the front lines by mid-autumn. Failure to do so may lead the West to push for negotiations with the Kremlin to achieve a ceasefire and end the conflict. As a result, several projects are being developed to help Ukraine maintain the current demarcation line with the enemy, similar to the format established in 2014.

Military sources from Kyiv respond to this by emphasizing that, in their turn, Western partners are also in no hurry to provide the weapons necessary to achieve quick results, so they have no right to pressure.

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