The day before, official Ankara announced its intention to unilaterally terminate the agreements reached earlier with Kiev on the supply of Ukrainian grain to Asian and African countries. According to Turkish sources, this is due to Turkey’s unwillingness to confront Russia on this issue. Independent analysts tend to believe that we are talking about a new “geopolitical strategy” of the team of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This position of Turkey surprised not only Ukraine. A few days ago, the Turkish leader stated that he personally supports the idea of extending the so-called “grain deal”, according to which hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian wheat and barley were shipped through the Bosporus and Dardanelles to a number of regions. Then Erdogan noted that his country would become the guarantor of the relevant operations.
Probably something went wrong. Already today, the head of Turkey, in his traditional televised address, called on representatives of the regional administration and the business community to refrain from making any decisions in this context. Say, the Turkish state does not intend to interfere in the conflict in Ukraine.
“To put it simply, Ankara did not risk its ships ensuring the passage of dry cargo ships with Ukrainian grain through its territory,” American political observer William Connolly said in a special commentary for EURO-ATLANTIC UKRAINE. – In fact, this is a precautionary measure: Turkey, with all its desire to help Ukraine to a certain extent, cannot ignore contacts with the Russian Federation by canceling the “grain deal”.
But it’s true. At present, it is extremely unprofitable for Turkey to quarrel with Moscow over the Ukrainian “grain deal” for three reasons at once. First, the Russians can block the exits from Ukrainian ports with sea mines. Secondly, Turkey sends foreign ships through the Black Sea only for money: “the unlimited limit for Ukraine has been exhausted,” say local analysts, who complain that Ankara did not receive financial profit from the “grain deal”. And, finally, thirdly, Turkey declared itself as the subject of determining the world order, demanding a diplomatic presence in the relevant operations.
“Everything is extremely simple: in the near future the problem of the “grain deal will not be resolved,” European and American media say.
This is where analysts should think about Turkey’s role in geopolitics.
