Bulgaria announced that it would provide military aid to Ukraine for the first time. Until the summer of 2023, Russia managed to control and limit Bulgarian support. Now, when the influence of the Kremlin is openly ignored, it remains to sort out methods of revenge.
New breath
The transfer of equipment has been delayed for quite some time due to previous administrations in Sofia blocking the process. However, since Nikolai Denkov headed the new government in June, the situation changed dramatically.
Now they reported the transfer of approximately 100 armored personnel carriers. They have been in service with Sofia since the 1980s when they were transferred by the Soviet Union as part of the Warsaw Pact.
Space for manipulations
It would seem that Russia has lost the war for influence over Bulgaria if the latter transfers armored vehicles to Ukraine. However, there may still be some room for manipulation.
The fact is that Sofia has not yet announced the final amount of aid. This issue was left to the discretion of the executive power. This means that Russia could potentially minimize the amount of aid provided if it chooses to do so.
Basic mechanisms
In Bulgaria, Russia can use its main levers of blackmail, which it traditionally uses in relation to Europe:
– price and supply of gas and oil;
– investments in the country;
– closing joint projects, etc.
Over the past few years, Russia has invested a considerable amount of money into Bulgaria through Sofia. The resort and hotel industry, in particular, has seen a significant number of Russian businessmen investing in it.
Where does such courage come from?
The Bulgarian government is fully aware of the risks and disadvantages of supporting the pro-Ukrainian position. However, they have chosen to help Ukraine. Where does such determination come from?
The fact is that the main factor in international politics is not nobility, but benefit for the country. Therefore, losses from confrontation with Russia in this situation are smaller than pro-European economic prospects. Russian infusions are smaller than the potential benefits of the next step toward the EU.
Thus, Bulgaria is not as interested in Ukraine itself as in European integration processes. Relations with the USA are at the same level because American investments that will flow to Sofia will be able to improve the economy in a certain way.
