The day before, the influential American magazine Newsweek published an article according to which hundreds of militants of the Russian private military company Wagner leave their positions at military bases in the Republic of Belarus and return to the territory of the Russian Federation. According to analysts, this process was made possible thanks to a secret agreement between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to the magazine’s sources, in the foreseeable future, “Wagnerites” may reappear on the battlefields in eastern Ukraine and in a number of African states.
So, what is going on anyway? More recently, in his usual manner, Lukashenka stated that by acting as an intermediary in the conflict between the Kremlin and Wagner, he actually prevented the development of a coup in Russia. Moreover, he did not rule out the possibility of using this PMC in the interests of Minsk, not far from the Belarusian-Polish border. Suddenly, information appeared on the air of one of the Moscow telegram channels that the same Minsk allocated buses for the export of more than 300 “Wagnerites” to the Russian Federation. According to unverified information, the Belarusian president simply refused to pay for food and accommodation for the mercenaries.
At the same time, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that the Russian Ministry of Defense intends to take full control of all military operations without exception, including Mali, Chad and Libya, and place Wagner PMC soldiers leaving Belarus at their bases. in Rostov-on-Don, as well as near Krasnodar and Voronezh. In addition, according to analysts, this is part of Shoigu’s plans to separate Wagner and the closest associates of the head of the PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Allegedly, Prigozhin’s status in the Russian military system has already been lost.
It should be especially noted that, according to Western experts, the complete or even partial withdrawal of the “Wagnerites” from the Republic of Belarus can significantly reduce tension on the eastern flanks of the North Atlantic Alliance. And this opinion is quite objective – earlier, individual PMC militants declared their desire to conduct a “special operation” on Polish territory. Among other things, they were engaged in whipping up anti-Western hysteria on the borders with Lithuania and Latvia.
Be that as it may, today no one can say with accuracy where exactly the Wagner people will end up. This will be known within the next few weeks.
