Even though the authorities of Belarus loudly declare the ineffectiveness of the sanctions, the facts indicate that the world has significantly “cooled down” regarding the purchase of agricultural products in this country. This year, Minsk relied mainly on Africa, but something went wrong.
“The whole world”
Minsk repeatedly emphasized that Western sanctions are unimportant because the rest of the world will continue buying products from Belarus. However, increasingly, this chorus of voices is becoming less friendly.
For example, the other day, Prime Minister Golovchenko expressed concern that political contacts with African politicians are not converted into dividends for the Belarusian economy. It seems that sanctions are hindering Belarus, even in Africa. The scenario repeats over and over: politicians meet and assure each other of their loyalty and commitment, but the foreign trade situation does not budge.
When you see data on the volume of Belarusian exports to Africa in recent years, the words of a Russian official about “negative dynamics” come to mind:
– 2019 – 400 million dollars;
– 2022 – 200 million dollars.
Reducing twice is a disaster. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister of Belarus resolutely denies the impact of sanctions. However, it is worth understanding in more detail what caused such results.
Political games
In 2020, exports to Africa amounted to 388 million dollars, almost half of which accounted for potassium fertilizers. They are the main commodity supplied from here to the African continent. This sphere suffered the most because potassium exports fell from 42% to 3%. However, failure is observed not only with potassium.
Before the beginning of the sanctions era, Belarus planned to export equipment worth 440 million dollars to Kenya. But now, the authorities of this country have begun to doubt whether it is worth continuing such large-scale cooperation with the sanctioned state, whose situation may continue to deteriorate.
Kenya understands that such a game is too risky, and whether it is worth it is a big question. It is possible to involve third countries to prevent danger due to sanctions, but such a long way significantly raises the price of equipment. Therefore, the prospects are very hazy now.
