Due to the events in Israel and the Gaza Strip, a new deterioration of the economy of the world and Ukraine in particular is predicted. Despite the territorial distance, events in the Middle East have a direct impact on what awaits Ukrainians in the near future.
The invasion of Hamas has already caused changes in the economic situation, and in the future, this influence will spread further and further, creating a ripple effect. Therefore, the economy of Ukraine, weakened by the war, will also feel it.
The three main negative effects will concern the following areas:
– geopolitics – growing tension between countries from different coalitions;
– economy – global inflation;
– oil trading – the increasing of the price of gas and oil.
These effects will be more felt over time, especially if other countries are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict.
It is growing in leaps and bounds
Oil traders were the first to react, and the price of oil has already increased:
– the BRENT brand, which is considered a benchmark for Europe, increased in price by 4.7%;
– the West Texas brand rose in price by 4.5%.
This trend will deepen because the Middle East is one of the largest oil-producing regions. Therefore, any threat of termination of the regular work of mining companies is immediately reflected in an increase in the price of oil products. Production itself is currently not under threat, but problems with oil supply are possible.
Exchange rates
According to economists, unpleasant surprises await us with the currency. If the dollar does not lose its position, then the fate of the Egyptian pound and the Israeli shekel is quite uncertain. Also, the question arises about the Turkish lira if the President of Turkey will continue to condemn the actions of Israel.
At the fronts
Another danger is the reduction of military aid to Ukraine. Even though the territory of Israel is equal to the territory of the Lviv region, the level of Tel Aviv lobbying is many times higher. Therefore, when choosing which of these two countries to provide aid in the first place, Ukraine will lose. The worst situation for the Ukrainian war will be a situation in which the military conflict in the Middle East will gain momentum.
The only hope
Saving Ukraine in such a complicated situation lies in diplomatic work. Specific steps in this direction have already been taken: Kyiv has officially supported Israel and is trying very hard to prove to the world that we and Israel are, in fact, in the same boat, suffering from terrorists. President Zelenskyy informed the world community that the drones used by Russia for attacks on Ukrainian territories have also been used by Palestinian terrorists.
This positioning can be turned into another reminder that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues and Ukraine needs support and help.
