From the first day, Belarus, as Russia’s closest partner, has been solving a complicated question: how not to be directly embroiled in the war but at the same time not to provoke the anger of its puppet master through disobedience? No politician in the world can envy Lukashenko now. However, it seems that the time for change has come when the position “both you and yours” has exhausted itself.
Collar with spikes
An open military confrontation with Ukraine is a nightmare for most Belarusians. For several decades, the primary message of Minsk propaganda remained the narrative that disobedience to both their President and the Russian one would lead to the fact that “it will be like in Ukraine.” The ghost of war became a harsh collar with spikes that helped to hold the people until the coup in Belarus. However, the Kremlin seems to be trying to take away this last trump card from Lukashenko.
This became known to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine. For Russia, the involvement of the army of Belarus in the ongoing war is one of its strategic tasks. Moreover, the Kremlin knows which points to press. The Russian authorities know for sure such nuances about their ally as:
– critical infrastructure facilities on Belarusian territories;
– activities of the Belarusian special services;
– location and condition of military units, etc.
In addition, there are the personal ambitions of the President of Belarus and the fear of losing power.
Where to get the reason?
To involve Belarus in a war with Ukraine, the Kremlin does not need to invent something creative. Banal sabotage on the border on behalf of Ukraine, which will cause resonance in society, will be perfect. It is known that two structures are engaged in their joint preparation:
– Russian FSB;
– Belarusian KGB.
It’s about large-scale attacks using drones, allegedly launched from Ukrainian territory against infrastructure facilities in Belarus. If the information is presented correctly, people will not ask why it is necessary for Ukraine during the war. In extreme cases, it is possible to come up with many explanations.
It is obvious that neither Ukraine nor Belarus needs such a development:
– direct involvement in the war is a terrible dream for Lukashenko and the end of his era, which balances exclusively on rusty stability;
– the second front for the Ukrainian army and the state is an overwhelming burden.
It is clear that only the Kremlin will benefit from this.
Belarus is a long-standing hostage to the ambitions of the Kremlin elite, and time will tell how long Minsk will be able to maneuver between its own well-being and alliance obligations.
