Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the constant risk of stopping the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea routes, Turkey has been making many diplomatic efforts to make this corridor work. There are many speeches about justice, the desire to help, etc. However, in politics, nothing happens solely out of nobility. What is the reason for Ankara’s interest?
In the summer of 2023, Russia finally withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Agreement. She left the door slightly open for herself, declaring that she was ready to return if certain her conditions were met. But the conditions are voiced very vaguely and blurred, so there are no illusions: it is not about grain but something more significant.
Political optimism
Since then, Ukraine has stopped persistent attempts to restore dialogue. But not Turkey. Months pass, and the Turkish authorities do not give up hope of restoring the grain corridors in the Black Sea with the consent of Russia. The other day, Ambassador of Turkey Yağmur Güldere emphasized that return to the Black Sea Initiative is possible, and his country does not stop actions in this direction. Why such efforts?
Keeps fighting
The matter is more complicated than it might seem at first glance. For Ukraine, everything is clear: export through the Black Sea corridors is the most profitable from an economic point of view; all other options – by land or via the Danube – lead to significant financial losses compared to the traditional way. But all possible methods of influencing Russia have already been used. In the future, all that remains for Kyiv is to concede to the Kremlin, and their concessions are expected in serious geopolitical issues. The Ukrainian authorities have not yet been brought to such despair.
True motives
Turkey, on the other hand, has a double motivation for its “nobility”:
– For some time, the country has been on the edge of EU sanctions for drilling in the waters of Cyprus and Greece. The situation is tense because Greece considers this territory its continental shelf, and Turkish explorers are interfering with it illegally. The European Union also agrees with this position, so the threat of sanctions is becoming more and more real. That is why active participation in the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative is a method of showing commitment to the common European course and common goal.
– In terms of grain agreement, Turkey has the largest “gesheft” if Ukraine itself is not taken into account. The country’s economy is losing significant profits, so Ankara is directly interested in its participation in the export of Ukrainian grain, and there is no question of nobility here.
That is why the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative is a card that Turkey wants to play again, even though other players have already left the table.
