The possibility of negotiations from a ghostly prospect is inUcreasingly turning into a real one, and the point is not whether Ukraine wants it. American and European politicians discuss this topic privately. It is assumed that the essential role in these unofficial discussions is assigned to the territorial concessions that Ukraine will have to make. So, how is it in reality? Will Kyiv be forced to sit at the negotiating table with the Kremlin?
The fact that Putin knows about the position of some Western officials is not news because he periodically mentions them in official speeches. Over the past year, such rhetoric has intensified.
What must Ukraine sacrifice?
The main controversial points concern what exactly Ukraine will have to give up.
Western politicians look at it differently, and the last informal debate about it probably occurred at the latest meeting in Germany in the Ramstein format. These discussions reflect two factors:
– the current situation at the front;
– the political picture in the EU and the USA. Both moments are dynamic but more or less fixed. Experts believe that surprises are more likely not at the front but in politics due to the tension before the elections. Pre-election races are an unstable time when priorities can change quickly and unpredictably.
Rebooting of the world
The dead end of the war has intensified the rhetoric about the start of negotiations. Western partners doubt they can provide the military support needed to continue the offensive.
Officials from the US government especially emphasize that with the beginning of a new aggravation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the relevance of the war in Ukraine in the world has fallen. Realistic forecasts agree that Ukraine has a chance to change the situation to its advantage as much as possible by the end of the current year. However, it has not been provided with the necessary weapons for this.
At the same time, they note that, apart from periodic statements about readiness to sit at the negotiating table, the Kremlin has not yet prepared and formulated its demands.
This could mean that Russia hopes to gain an even more significant advantage before the talks become a done deal.
The main idea of the Kremlin is the same as before – to wait for the exhaustion of Ukraine’s partners.
The alternative options of the West concern that Ukraine will be able to make a breakthrough at the front next year, although this prospect is becoming less and less realistic with each passing month.
