The leaders of two countries that are serious players in the world political arena will meet this week. What positions will they defend, and will it affect the situation in Ukraine?
Meeting place
An important meeting may take place in the USA during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. US President Joe Biden will be present as a representative of the host country.
Recently, it became known that the Chinese leader Xi Jinping may also attend this event. Such a step is very eloquent because the mutual visits of the leaders of these countries are an exceptional phenomenon.
However, that’s not all. In addition, the American and Beijing sides agreed on the resumption of negotiations on control over nuclear weapons, which had reached a dead end. It’s evident that at least one of the parties has fresh offers.
What’s new?
Analysts believe that one should not be too optimistic about the prospects of this meeting. The primary positions of each of the countries are as follows:
– China – The defeat of Russia in the current war with Ukraine is strategically disadvantageous, so the PRC will provide unofficial assistance to the Kremlin for a long time. No sanctions will be able to change this situation, especially since there are already enough ways to circumvent them in recent years.
– The USA – They understand that the current situation carries the risks of the final slide of Russia into the sphere of influence of the PRC. It would be a big strategic mistake to allow this union of two totalitarian states, which are also located next to each other, to be consolidated.
None of these states is going to change their positions. Therefore, it is most likely that the main topic during the meeting will be possible ways to regulate this rivalry. There are no illusions: a remarkable breakthrough in this field is not expected soon, but even the beginning of the dialogue is already a good sign.
Ukraine is in the middle
The polarity of political interests will not disappear because it is determined not only by political and economic factors but also geographically. Ukraine is as much between them as it is in the political picture of the world. That is why political scientists say that currently, neither the USA nor China have “trump cards” that will be used to change the attitude towards Kyiv. Most of all, this topic will not be discussed during the meeting.
The most likely final effect of the dialogue in the long term is an interim truce between Russia and Ukraine in 2024.
