British intelligence has provided information on the reasons for the decline in high-precision missile attacks by the Russian Federation over the past two months. It is known that the Russians have such missiles, but they are accumulating them. It is believed that this reserve is being formed to implement last year’s blackout scenario after all. How this scheme should work, read further in the article.
Exhaustion of the Air Defense Forces of Ukraine
We are already observing the first stage in this strategy, which is an attempt to exhaust the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian Federation launches drones almost every day. This guarantees that Ukraine will not accumulate shells to prevent massive winter attacks, so permanent shelling is Russia’s investment in winter achievements.
Battle for reconnaissance purposes
The second step, which the Russians resort to, is intelligence of the places of concentration of air defense systems. Specialists can calculate their location based on the coordinates of downed targets. This makes it possible to create a map of the “combat space,” which will later allow missiles to be launched along those routes with “blind spots” for Ukrainian air defense.
Analysis of this information obtained in the autumn will make the winter campaign to destroy the energy system more effective.
An example of such preparation was the massive attacks on November 18-19, when Russia launched 50 UAVs at Kyiv. They were headed in two directions:
– from Kursk to the east;
– from Krasnodar to the southeast.
Kyiv is currently the safest region due to the significant concentration of air defense systems that can protect critical objects in the city and suburbs.
When will it start?
The Minister of Energy Halushchenko spoke the other day about when to expect the start of active cruise missile attacks from Russia. The principal condition of the start is stable minus temperatures because such weather gives the enemies two trump cards:
– the deficit of the energy system in cold weather will cause more damage and will be felt by as many Ukrainian civilians as possible, suffering from the lack of light and cold in the premises;
– the repair and restoration of destroyed objects requires more time and effort in the conditions of cold.
So far, nature is kind to Ukrainians, but the warm autumn will not last forever.
Is it scary?
The Main Directorate of Intelligence reports that more than 800 missiles are currently accumulated in Crimea alone, which are waiting for the start of the campaign. However, the Ukrainian side is not idle either: the military and energy companies are actively preparing for attacks. It is incorrect that the stages of preparation and the three-level protection of energy facilities are described in detail in the media. This allows Russia to work out effective ways of destroying and neutralizing the developed scheme. However, war is a struggle for ideas and timely decisions, which will naturally intensify in winter.
