The situation with blocking the Polish-Ukrainian border may seem absurd. It is important to remember that Poland was one of the countries that provided significant support to Ukraine during the initial stages of the full-scale invasion. Therefore, the current actions that are being taken, which could potentially lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian economy, do not fit into this paradigm. But is everything so if you take a closer look?
Is Russia an enemy or a strategic partner?
Warsaw’s mistrust of Moscow is based on the fact that a large part of Poland was considered by Russia to be originally Russian territory. The situation is somewhat complicated because Poland is now a member of NATO. However, judging by Russia’s policy, the Kremlin is increasingly inclined not to moderate strategies but to an all-in game. Therefore, Moscow’s transition from a hybrid war to a full-scale invasion was rightly viewed by Warsaw as its threat.
Not through the door but through the window
But at the same time, there is something that has always been a topic of discussion between Warsaw and the Kremlin: the ownership of the western regions of Ukraine. This topic is painful for Poland, which lost these lands after the Second World War. So, the desire to return them has not disappeared.
Going to war against Ukraine is an audacious and doubtful project for Warsaw. However, everything looks differently in a situation where the eastern neighbor is taken by Russia in parts. The Western Ukrainian population would rather be under the Polish protectorate than face the Kremlin and its policy of terror against Ukrainians, of which there is no doubt.
Therefore, seizing this opportunity is an option that will not cause such a violent reaction and sanctions from the world community as open aggression.
Grounds for suspicion
It may seem that Poland is suspected in an overly cynical way, but the fact that such doubts are not groundless can be concluded from several factors:
– From the beginning of the strike, the Polish government was aware of the consequences for Ukraine and maintained neutrality. But now, he actively supports the demands of the strikers.
– The agreement, which the Poles are demanding to cancel, is legal and signed according to all legal details. That is, they just ignore international law, preventing its implementation. If the Polish government wanted to, it would quickly stop this lawlessness.
– The Ukrainian side implemented several measures to satisfy Polish carriers; however, this did not change the situation. So, the main goal is not to reach a consensus but something deeper.
Now, the resolution of this issue is as critical as the provision of military aid to Ukraine. If Kyiv somehow fails to master it, this may be the beginning of the countdown.
