The decision to start negotiations on joining the EU has been made, but what’s next? There are specific procedures, a functioning calendar, and the stubborn reluctance of certain EU members to admit Ukraine into the organization. So, what is the future forecast?
The European integration calendar for next year is as follows:
– February 1 – A summit will be held, during which 50 billion euros will be allocated to support Ukraine for the next 4 years. This was supposed to happen back in December, but the Hungarian veto damaged the procedure. Therefore, on February 1, there is an intention to reject Hungary’s right of veto on legal grounds.
– By the beginning of spring – Ukraine must fulfill all the additional requirements prescribed by the European Commission in November 2023. Three of them have already been worked out, and it remains to finish with the law on lobbying. This is aimed at keeping oligarchs’ lobbying within limits, but at the same time, not limiting public advocacy.
– March – Receiving an interim report from the European Commission with an assessment of the fulfilled requirements. It is believed that it will immediately approve the framework of negotiations. At this point, the problem with Hungary will arise again, and how it can be solved is still unknown.
– Around May – Official opening of negotiations with the first intergovernmental conference.
– June – Elections to the European Parliament.
– Summer-autumn – Elections of the chairman and members of the European Commission. Since the current staff has the right to work until the end of October under the law, new representatives must be elected before this period.
The main problem is that in the second half of 2024, Hungary will chair the Council of the European Union, so it is better for Ukraine to speed up all possible procedures until July.
And when?
Despite the statement that all procedures can be completed in 2 years, experts believe it will not be possible to settle the process quickly. An example is last year’s optimism about the fulfillment of seven requirements by the end of 2022, which Ukraine could fulfill only by the end of 2023. And then, there will be many more requirements and stages, especially since the screening at later stages will be more detailed. Most likely, there will also be a lot of comments, especially if you take into account that the preparation on the part of Ukraine will be fast.
In fact, the Ukrainian authorities face many tasks and challenges on this path, and everything depends on the political will of both parties. However, if this chance is wasted, there will definitely not be a second one. The future years will show whether it will be possible to use it.
