The waters of the Black Sea had to be demined by two specialized minesweepers: “Chernihiv” and “Cherkasy.” But the unexpected ban canceled these plans, proving that Turkey’s position in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is ambiguous. What is driving Erdogan?
Official reason
The fact is that the formal reason for such an unexpected decision was the closure of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits for ships of the military fleet after February 24, 2022. The basis is the Montreux Convention, signed back in 1936, according to which, during the war, these straits must be closed to the ships of belligerent states.
Due to this limitation, at one time, Russia could not quickly transfer large ships to the Black Sea from other fleets of the Russian Federation. Now, the same points have been applied to minesweepers. And here the questions arose.
War or peace
On the one hand, such minesweepers are warships, but on the other hand, the purpose of their arrival is to detect and neutralize floating mines. Mine clearance is necessary for the preservation of lives and the safety of merchant ships, so it must be carried out in peacetime as well. Erdogan is informed about this, but in this situation, he chose formalism.
What is the interest of the President of Turkey? His interest is in retaining the role of a connecting link in the agreements between Kyiv and Moscow. Until recently, Erdogan had this exclusive right, and he is not going to lose it. Because the probability that a platform for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine will still become necessary does not disappear over time. And the one who will be the owner of the negotiation platform will quickly enter the political elites.
That is why Erdogan is very interested in maintaining his role as mediator. The only thing is that by the time it is needed, his presidential term may already be over, and he will be at the stage of the power struggle.
Friendship with all its might
But it is also worth remembering several factors thanks to which Turkey has retained the favor of Russia:
– no sanctions against the Russian Federation have been implemented in almost two years;
– a comfortable climate for Russian officials and oligarchs has been created in the country;
– Erdogan is still dependent on Russian gas.
As soon as these points are discussed by the West, the President of Turkey reminds us of the importance of his neutrality to preserve the role of a mediator. But in order not to lose your status, you cannot change the original data. For example, demining the Black Sea.
