The Heidelberg Institute for Conflict Research has provided an interesting report describing the main types of modern conflicts attempted to resolve violently. Examining these data, it becomes clearer why the war broke out in Ukraine and what to expect next.
According to this report, the main reasons are divided into three large groups:
– struggle for resources (territories, water, access to water areas, minerals, etc.);
– ideological reasons;
– religious disagreements.
In the case of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it is definitely about resources and only then – about ideology and the division of spheres of influence. Although, the Kremlin is trying with all its might to present the opposite.
Most analysts predict that this war will be followed by others due to factors indicating the start of a period of intense geopolitical competition for resources. It envisages three principal directions:
– China;
– Africa as a testing ground for resource war;
– graphite resistance.
China – the USA and the EU
The strategic confrontation consists of the containment by the West of the Chinese development in the production of chips, which also includes the supply of various raw materials. For this, restrictions are introduced by the United States. China’s response was restrictions on the supply of Chinese gallium and germanium, which are used for fiber optics and optics, to Western countries. 90% of this raw material now comes from China. Also, 60% of the world’s lithium and 65% of cobalt come from here. Against this background, an additional field of struggle is unfolding for the regions with reserves, namely Africa and Central America.
Resources of Africa
Several Western countries have already begun the development of promising African deposits. A few days before the start of the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, the EU launched a multi-million program for the development of African states with an emphasis on the extractive industry. France and Germany show particular interest, and it is not only about uranium but also about oil and gas.
Graphite wars
Another significant resource is graphite, which is needed for lithium batteries. Here again, China and the USA became rivals. Beijing is the first in the world in graphite production, but Mozambique and Madagascar are in second and third place. Therefore, the struggle for control over these deposits for the USA is equal to independence in the supply of graphite from China.
All regions interesting from the point of view of resource conflict are located not only in Africa. These are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with their reserves of rare earth metals, and Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and several other countries. That is why the struggle for the resources of future production is only heating up.
