It became known that the EU is preparing to adopt a decision on the transfer of 50 billion euros to Ukraine in the coming weeks. Since Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has not changed his opinion on this matter, the preparation shows that the European Union is confident that the mechanisms to overcome his disagreement have already been found. What will they be?
It’s scary to speak directly
We must start with the fact that Orbán conducts his rhetoric, preventing too harsh statements. He emphasizes that he is not at all against aid, but he does not like the format in which it is going to be provided. In his opinion, donating 50 billion euros from the EU budget means violating the national interests of the union. However, most politicians do not agree with him because the current war in Ukraine directly affects not only the security status of the European Union but also its economy, and this effect is extremely negative. Therefore, it is illogical to consider the allocation of funds as not in line with the interests of the EU.
But there is one rational judgment in Orbán’s argument: he emphasizes that the situation is very unstable at the moment, so it is impossible to predict what will happen even in a few months, let alone 4 years (namely, for such a period, support of 50 billion euros is calculated). The Hungarian Prime Minister insists that the aid tool for Kyiv should not be tied to the EU budget but should, for example, be formed from the gross national income.
Two alternatives
But the politicians of the European Union say that the aid will be allocated in a few weeks. This means that it has already been decided how exactly they are going to influence Orbán. There are several opposite options:
– “Stick” – in the case of a veto by Hungary, article 7 can be applied to suspend the right of this country to vote in the European Council.
– “Carrot” – resort to concessions from the EU to Hungary.
Now Orbán insists that the aid of 50 billion euros should not be approved at a time but they should return to this issue every year. On the one hand, this makes sense precisely because of the unstable situation that the Prime Minister of Hungary reminds us of every time. On the other hand, it will enable Orbán to blackmail European politicians every year.
Therefore, we are waiting for a solution to the problem soon.
