Over the past week, four successful attacks on oil and gas enterprises happened in Russia. The Kremlin tries not to comment on these events to maintain the illusion of control over the situation. However, the fact cannot be hidden: the new stage of the war, which was only recently discussed in theory, has moved into the practical plane. And this stage brought unexpected results.
What is it?
Until recently, the focus of Ukrainian efforts was concentrated on the territories of hostilities and adjacent zones. However, it has recently become clear that asymmetric war (“asymmetric war” is a confrontation in which the opponents’ forces are unequal according to several criteria) should leave the format of the last two years. It was at the beginning of 2024 when a new phase began, which consisted of the destruction of Russia’s military and industrial complex and facilities critical for hostilities on Russian territories.
Gaining momentum
In the last week, it became clear that the plans were already being implemented because four enterprises were attacked, and each action was successful. Strike drones were used for damage, which were directed at the following objects:
– January 18 – St. Petersburg oil terminal. It is the largest Russian oil product transshipment terminal in the Baltic region.
– January 19 – “Rosneft” oil depot in Klintsy city. Large fuel tanks burned here.
– January 21 – the terminal of the “Novatek” company in the port of Ust-Luga city. It is a fundamental link of the energy infrastructure that processes gas condensate and oil products for export to Asia.
– January 24 – Oil depot in Tuapse near “Rosneft” oil refinery. This is the only such production on the Black Sea coast.
Unexpected (or vice versa) results
In addition to damaging the object, the attacks led to another effect: the percentage of Russians who support the war in Ukraine dropped sharply. According to the results of surveys, more than 56% of Russian citizens want a quick end to the SMO without achieving the goals announced by the leadership. The rhetoric of coverage of events in the media has also changed. If earlier the phrase “war in Ukraine” was used, now “war with Ukraine” is heard more and more often. This no longer has an attachment exclusively to Ukrainian territories.
It is clear that with each new attack on the oil refinery, Russia is increasingly prepared for risks. Therefore, experts emphasize that soon, the targets of damage will not be units of the oil refining industry but some other sphere. Judging by the dynamics, we will find out exactly what area it will be.
