From the first day of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the USA has been announcing sanctions, which were initially very high hopes. However, as one analyst said: “By 2022, we believed that the Russian Federation would have a strong army and a weak economy. Both judgments were wrong.” Therefore, each subsequent package of sanctions is increasingly broad and tough. But they never reach an actual critical level. Why?
Shaky pillars
The reason for avoiding the most severe measures is not the fear of Russia, as it might seem at first glance. Everything is more widely: the Americans are afraid of shaking the world economy too much because the Russian Federation, although based on an aggressive policy, is one of the financial pillars of the world scale. That is why the strictest restrictions in the arsenal do not dare to be applied. Trying to limit the Kremlin’s ability to engage in military aggression should not become a punishment for the whole world; it would be particularly wrong.
However, the USA is acting more decisively. The number of radical measures is so broad that the list of objects included in the sanction list takes up 200 pages. And they are located not only in the territory of Russia but also in the UAE, China, and other countries that contribute to the actions of the Russian military and industrial complex.
But do not be deceived: this list does not include many less visible companies and sectors, for example:
– metallurgical sector;
– energy restrictions of the middle link;
– secondary sanctions in the banking sector.
They could really change the situation.
On the brakes
But what does this caution indicate? Despite President Biden’s loud statements about sanctions and American determination in this activity, the White House is still not ready to limit those revenue streams that would really bring the Russian economy to its knees. This would cause too much of a shock to the world economy, including within the US itself.
For the sanctions to become more challenging, they must be extended to foreign banks, which at the moment contribute to the purchase of technologies and metals for the Russian Federation, necessary to continue to wage war. The US can freeze all Russian assets accumulated abroad. But world economists warn that real steps in this direction would cause unforeseen consequences.
In the meantime, the Russian economy is firmly on the military track, and during the current year, it is even expected to grow by 1-1.5%. This is facilitated by partners in China, Brazil, and other regions who buy oil from the Russian Federation. The strengthening of Russia is also not in the sphere of interests of the White House, so we should expect new and more effective measures.
