It seems that the beginning of the third year of the war between Russia and Ukraine was marked by anticipation of a decisive turning point. And this solution lies not in the plane of the battlefield, but in the plane of support for Ukraine, which is constantly decreasing. This resulted in many factors, and whether it is possible to move from a dead point is a question.
It seems that the issue of support has turned into a labyrinth of political interests of other countries, which flows into:
– permanent blockade of the allocation of financial aid by the US Congress;
– the endless dispute about the provision of Taurus cruise missiles;
– obsession with nuclear issues.
The main feature of this conflict is that it is not just about the so-called “great war”, but about an unusual waging war.
Ukraine’s problem is that its donor is an intercontinental alliance of states. This leads to the need to constantly adjust the means, the goal, endlessly waiting for permission to act in one way or another.
Interestingly, Ukraine is already perceived informally as part of NATO, and the narrative that Ukrainians defended the alliance is not a discovery for Europeans. However, such rhetoric has certain disadvantages. For example, it presents Ukraine as a buffer on Russia’s path to Europe. At the same time, hopes are being strengthened that Kyiv will somehow deal with Russian aggression.
Giving Ukraine to Russia in 2022 was impossible for European security reasons. That is why they chose the option that excluded a peace treaty with Russia but did not allow escalation to Europe. As the costs of the war are getting bigger, the path of negotiations becomes more and more urgent. But it must be somehow so that it does not incentivize the occupier to repeat his tactics in the future.
The war tests the West’s ability to mobilize and organize logistics, people, technologies, raw materials, and capital. Ukraine has become a litmus test, and the result is disappointing. The help remains so as not to lose quickly. And the alliance still cannot decide who should invest what share in Ukraine’s defense capability.
Another aspect everyone forgets is that Putin knows the German language and is very familiar with German society. So, he follows all the changes in the West when Russia is closed to the West. Therefore, the Kremlin clearly considers all changes and plans taking them into account. Meanwhile, the Internet is full of lies and propaganda, and experts and politicians mutually discredit each other’s statements as “Putin supporters” or “warmongers.”
So, the experiment of the great war continues, and the finale is still open.
