These conditions behind the scenes are referred to as “red lines.” If Russia crosses them, NATO forces will be sent to intervene in Ukraine. What are these conditions?
The definition of “red lines” was done confidentially and without official announcement. Two of them are known, although it is entirely possible that more were actually mentioned. These conditions will lead to direct NATO involvement in the war.
The question about this is very pressing. Even French President Macron’s proposal to deploy a contingent to Ukraine that would be involved in auxiliary stages, not in combat, has sparked a vigorous reaction. It was about demining, training Ukrainian military personnel, and so on.
It should be emphasized that the bloc has not prepared a plan to send its people. The Alliance is only assessing the algorithm of actions in case new third countries are involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
So, the conditions for the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine are as follows:
1. Direct or indirect participation in the war of a third country that is not a subject of the Russian Federation. Most likely, Belarus could be such a country. It is believed that Russia could resort to breaking through the north-western Ukrainian border, thereby creating a corridor from Belarus to Kyiv. Thus, Minsk would be a player in the war, as at this point its army and arsenal would be decisive for the Kremlin. But Moscow must realize that such a scenario would only escalate defense to a new stage with NATO involvement.
2. Provocative military actions against the Baltic countries, Poland, or Moldova. In this case, not only direct invasion would be considered a provocation but also air strikes, which the Russians could use to test the West’s readiness to react.
A critical time frame has also been identified when Russia could test the second scenario – this is during the elections to the European Parliament or the US Presidential election. To prevent this, a clear position that Putin will be aware of must be formulated now.
If we translate all of the above into ordinary “undiplomatic” language, the definition of “red lines” means the following: Russia must realize that any attempt to conquer any European capital, including Kyiv, will lead to NATO’s intervention in the conflict.
