Recently, the USA adopted and signed a financial aid package for Ukraine. This is crucial, but what is equally important is the provision of ATACMS ballistic missiles, which not long ago was a “red line.” Moscow tried to obstruct this in every possible way. However, the historic decision has been made. What consequences will this have?
The link between missiles and Baptists
The transfer of missile systems cannot be considered unexpected, as this decision was in the works for months. Nevertheless, it was a challenging task. Seven months ago, analysts noted that Johnson’s appointment as spokesperson would only complicate the process, as he was consistent in his opposition to providing military assistance to Ukraine.
But according to his own words, efforts from US President Biden, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and evangelicals, specifically Baptists from Ukraine, helped him find a way out of the difficulties of the American political system. His actions demonstrate not only personal strategic foresight but also Congress’s strategic interest in supporting Ukraine.
Military secret
And again, we turn to ATACMS. It became known last week about their transfer, although this happened without inclusion in the significant support package. It was done secretly, and unusually, Ukraine itself requested silence, not the USA. Obviously, the main reason is security.
The determination of the USA at this moment is striking, as the transfer of ATACMS is critical: this step will force the Russian army to move their depots away from the front to protect them, which will slow down and worsen overall logistics. This provides the Ukrainian Armed Forces with an additional opportunity to strike at the enemy’s command centers. This also increases risks for the Crimean Bridge.
Slow escalation
Of course, transferring such type of weapons is a violation of the “red line”. But it is worth mentioning how many times it has already been crossed. The key role was played by the principle of gradualism, consciously adhered to by the Biden administration. It is this principle that is holding Russia back from critical escalation. Now the focus shifts to whether Ukraine will organize the necessary number of troops through mobilization. Encouragingly, Russia has not been able to significantly advance the front line despite the huge shortage of ammunition in Ukraine over the last six months.
However, the Kremlin is demonstrating its readiness for escalation. An example of this was the recent ballistic shelling of Odesa with cluster ammunition. It would be desirable for the U.S. to understand that in response to these actions, they will not only have to respond with missile systems but also with anti-missile complexes, otherwise barbaric crimes against civilians will only increase. Peaceful cities need to be protected somehow. The same goes for energy facilities.
