Such figures have never been seen in Europe during peacetime. One can deceive oneself, but if the trend has begun, it will intensify, as any demographer will tell you. What has led to this situation and will it become a real catastrophe? (Spoiler: the problem won’t disappear on its own).
They Warned, But Were Not Heard
2024 may become a significant turning point for the European Union, as, according to UN forecasts, the population, currently standing at 448 million, has started to decline. This unprecedented peacetime reduction is likely to continue.
In 2022, the EU population temporarily increased after a two-year decline caused by the pandemic, thanks to the influx of refugees from Ukraine. Eurostat had predicted that the population would peak at 453 million in 2026. However, the 2023 figures turned out to be lower than expected, as the birth rate in the EU fell to a level that Eurostat had not predicted for another two decades. This suggests that the peak may not occur by 2026.
Demographic Changes Are Happening Sooner
It is becoming clear that the long-anticipated demographic shift in the EU is happening earlier than many experts expected. Historically, immigration has helped maintain population numbers, and increased participation of immigrants and women in the workforce has offset the decrease in the working-age population. But these measures are becoming insufficient.
The birth rate in many of the 27 EU countries has remained extremely low for decades. The reduction in the most productive part of the population creates additional pressure on public finances, affecting economic prospects and geopolitical positioning. As a result, the EU has become a testing ground for pro-natal policies, most of which have so far failed to effectively stop the decline in birth rates. Meanwhile, increasing immigration remains a politically sensitive issue.
