From June 6 to 9, elections in the European Union will effectively decide the fate of the EU for the next five years. 390 million European citizens will set the course not only for a united Europe but also for continued support for Ukraine.
2024 European Parliament Elections: Why Are They So Important for Ukraine?
To start, European Parliament elections occur every five years. Citizens of the 27 EU member states will elect 720 deputies for a five-year term. The number of MEPs during each term changes based on population shifts.
Although the European Parliament does not have legislative initiative, the newly elected MEPs will agree on the composition of the European Commission, vote on relevant resolutions, have the power to pass a vote of no confidence in the President of the European Commission, and influence the formation of the agenda.
The current European Parliament has been notably pro-Ukrainian, with resolutions supporting Ukraine consistently receiving majority votes. However, some non-affiliated deputies and members of the far-right group “Identity and Democracy” have tried to obstruct this support and have even voiced Russian propaganda narratives from the Parliament’s podium.
Roland Freudenstein, founder of the Brussels Freedom Hub and an analyst, explained in a comment to Channel 24 that European elections are overrated when it comes to their impact on EU foreign policy. According to him, the European Parliament cannot resolve EU foreign and security policy issues, as it plays only an advisory role.
“MEPs can demand, they can pass resolutions, and even sue the European Commission over the rule of law in Hungary. But the European Parliament does not make decisions, which is the difference from national parliaments,” Freudenstein shared.
However, the European Parliament has influence on internal issues, such as agriculture, trade, and access to the single market. Freudenstein calls for these issues to be considered separately and emphasizes the need to seek compromises.
“These are very specific issues where internal interests come into play and where the Parliament also has a say,” he says.
According to the expert, the real danger lies in the possibility that nationalists and Putin’s allies could gain power by entering the European Council, where the governments of the 27 member states make joint decisions.
Meanwhile, Amanda Paul, an analyst at the European Policy Centre, adds that the European Parliament plays a key role in approving the new leadership of the European Commission, which is responsible for preparing legislative acts. Additionally, the European Parliament votes on key bills, including those related to EU enlargement, and thus Ukraine.
“We need to remind both MEPs and member states that we cannot talk about war fatigue or anything like that, and we must focus on Ukraine’s victory and reconstruction efforts,” stated the parliamentarian.
The Rise of Populist Influence: What the New Composition of the European Parliament Might Look Like
Due to population growth in the EU, the new European Parliament will have 15 more MEPs. However, according to preliminary surveys by Politico, significant changes in the configuration of the European Parliament are not expected.
Pro-European Parties Maintain Leading Positions
The pro-European parties, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will retain leading positions. Preliminary data suggests that the EPP could secure 175 seats, while the Progressive Alliance might get 143 seats, which is not significantly different from the 2019 results.
Changes in Party Representation
In the previous elections, Renew Europe secured 102 seats in the European Parliament, but they may only obtain 82 mandates this time. The representation of the Greens is expected to almost halve. They held 72 seats during this term, but their number could drop to 41 next month. Conversely, polls predict an increase for the far-right political group “Identity and Democracy,” with representatives potentially gaining 27 more seats than before.
Factors Driving Populism and Far-Right Trends
Analyst Amanda Paul attributes the trend toward populism and far-right parties to several factors. She notes that migration issues, not the arrival of Ukrainian refugees but migrants from the so-called Southern Neighbourhood, played a significant role.
“There has been a significant increase in migrants, and some EU member states are now experiencing a rise in far-right populism as a result. For instance, in the Netherlands, the far-right party received the most votes in the last elections. Similar trends are observed in countries like Germany, Austria, Hungary, and others,” explains Paul.
Another reason is farmers’ dissatisfaction with the Green Deal, which entails many changes to traditional farming practices. Additionally, far-right parties are gaining more influence due to rising energy prices and the cost of living.
Stability and Concerns Over Nationalism and Populism
Roland Freudenstein does not expect drastic changes in the European Parliament’s composition after the June elections. He attributes this stability to the fact that the elections are held in 27 different EU member states.
However, he acknowledges that concerns about nationalism and populism becoming stronger in this new European Parliament are justified. “Identity and Democracy” will indeed increase its presence, as polls predict.
Despite this, the majority of the European Parliament is expected to remain pro-Ukrainian. Urmas Paet also emphasizes the possibility of pro-Russia and pro-China populists becoming more active during the next mandate. He mentions that in recent terms, there have been about 100 to 150 MEPs acting in favor of Russian interests.
According to Paet, some of these MEPs are naive puppets, while others are Kremlin agents receiving money or other benefits from Russians in exchange for pro-Russian speeches and amendments.
Former Lithuanian Defense Minister and Renew Europe MEP Rasa Juknevičienė noted that despite the potential risk of rising populism, the majority in the European Parliament will still be pro-Ukrainian.
Russia’s Attempts to Interfere in the Electoral Process
Moscow is trying to interfere in EU elections, and these attempts have not gone unnoticed. In April 2024, Belgium launched an investigation into possible Russian interference in the pan-European elections. Belgian intelligence confirmed the existence of a network attempting to undermine Western support for Ukraine. According to the investigation, Russia is trying to help pro-Russian candidates obtain mandates to entrench Kremlin narratives in this institution.
This is not the first time Russia has attempted to interfere in the electoral process. Previously, the Czech government uncovered and dismantled a pro-Russian network led by pro-Kremlin businessmen. Sanctions were imposed against the media outlet The Voice of Europe, run by oligarch and Putin’s crony Viktor Medvedchuk and his partner Artem Marchevsky. The Czech Security Information Service stated that these actions were aimed at influencing the European Parliament elections.
At the end of April, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging EU political leadership and member states to urgently and decisively counter Russian interference attempts. This week, the European Council called on the relevant EU bodies and member states to employ all tools to prevent foreign interference in the elections.
However, concerns remain. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes that the European Parliament elections “are under threat of Russian interference.” The Polish government head said that certain actions are planned in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and “to a lesser extent” Finland.
“This is not the first such case, but each time the scale becomes bigger, more alarming,” Tusk explained.
