Neither defeat, nor victory: there are countries for which neither the triumph nor the capitulation of Ukraine is profitable

Many Ukrainians have felt from the early months of the war that the West is providing weapons with one hand and ensuring that Ukraine is not defeated, but at the same time dragging out all processes to prevent them from being truly effective. There are actually many reasons for this, and this impression is not groundless.

Ambassador of Estonia in Ukraine Anneli Kolk once again reminded about these double standards. She mentioned that there are a number of countries that are primarily tightly connected with Russia through wide economic ties. They understand very well that if Ukraine wins, the Russian economy will suffer significantly, which in turn will have a sharply negative impact on their own economy.

Therefore, the scenario of Russia’s defeat is very undesirable for them, as economic changes affect international politics, interaction with the electorate, and many other unwanted and rapid changes. That’s why prolonging the war is the most advantageous option for them.

But Anneli Kolk also noted that despite this, there are positive changes for Ukraine: the entire political elite of the world is watching how similar fears and narratives gradually weaken, shifting the balance in favor of Ukraine.

The point is that countries that were inclined towards a strategy of relative neutrality (even if they showed clear support for Kyiv in official statements) are gradually becoming convinced that in this situation, Russia has ceased to be a reliable partner, and betting on it may not justify itself. This primarily proves that the Russian Federation has played all its foreign policy cards very openly and publicly. There is no longer any reason to expect it to adhere to any rules in foreign policy.