ISW assessed the likelihood of Putin using nuclear weapons if Ukraine wins the war

Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons if Western countries allow Ukraine to achieve victory in the war against Russia. The Washington Institute for the Study of War has assessed the likelihood of actual escalation under such a scenario.

In an analytical report by ISW, it is mentioned that during a press conference in Hanoi on June 20, the Kremlin chief stated that Moscow is considering changing the nuclear doctrine of the aggressor country supposedly in response to discussions by Western states “about creating more powerful nuclear weapons and lowering the threshold for their use.”

American experts speculated that Putin’s statement was a response to a message from the Secretary-General of NATO. Jens Stoltenberg stated on June 17 that the organization is discussing strengthening nuclear readiness in light of the increased threat from Russia and China to the alliance countries.

The Russian leader also indicated that the defeat of the occupiers on the front lines would signify the end of his country’s millennia-old history, so Russia would rather fight to the end. Obviously, the dictator sees Ukraine’s victory as a threat to the sovereignty and integrity of his state, in response to which he would launch a nuclear strike.

Anlysts believe that by making such threats, the Kremlin chief is trying to keep the West away from the strategic goal of defeating Russian forces.

They add that Putin will continue to manipulate this issue, but nuclear escalation in the event of Russia’s defeat remains unlikely, as Russia would lose if Western countries mobilize their resources to confront the aggressor.