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Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine: what to expect - Euro-Atlantic Ukraine

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine: what to expect

Until August 5, most exchange offices in Ukraine will operate on a “turnover” basis, with a small gap between currency buying and selling rates. For the dollar, this gap will be 15-20 kopecks, and for the euro – 25-30 kopecks.

Dollar Exchange Rate

In most exchange offices and banks, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within the following range: buying – from 41.10 to 41.35 hryvnias, selling – from 41.45 to 41.65 hryvnias. This is indicated in the forecast of the “Minfin” publication.

Euro Exchange Rate

In exchange offices, the euro exchange rate on August 3-4 will be as follows: buying – from 44.20 to 44.80 hryvnias, selling – from 44.90 to 45.30 hryvnias. The euro will remain the main tool for speculation in the cash market this weekend.

Stability of the Hryvnia

No significant strengthening of the hryvnia is expected in the current military conditions, but a new large wave of devaluation is also not forecasted. Changes may occur at the end of the quarter when budget payments may affect the foreign exchange market. During this period, the State Treasury settles its debts with companies that buy currency for settlements with foreign partners, which may temporarily weaken the hryvnia.

Record Currency Purchase Volumes

In July 2024, Ukrainians bought a record amount of currency from banks in 12 years. In particular, commercial banks sold cash and non-cash currency amounting to $1.658 billion (equivalent), and bought $2.775 billion.