On July 9, while the world focused on the tragic events in Kyiv where a children’s hospital was affected, Russia was celebrating its rotational presidency in the UN Security Council. In New York, at a lunch hosted by Russia’s Permanent Representative Vasiliy Nebenzya, they served “Chicken Kiev” — a traditional dish considered Russian. Before starting the lunch, Nebenzya denied Russia’s involvement in the explosion that took the lives of two people and injured seven children. Diplomats, even if shocked, remained silent.
This incident illustrates the current state of the world, where Russia behaves boldly, like a hooligan confident in its impunity, while the West observes events doing nothing. The initial fear of NATO felt at the beginning of the invasion is dissipating due to Putin’s actions going unpunished. Despite the West’s ability to stop the war on Ukraine’s terms, it lacks the resolve to achieve victory. Putin, unlike the West, continues to move towards his goal.
Western Inaction
Over the past two and a half years, Western leaders have repeatedly declared their support for Ukraine, yet their actions do not match their words. Promised military aid arrives late and in insufficient quantities to adequately counter Russian forces. The West limits Ukraine’s capabilities by prohibiting attacks on Russian targets, thereby restraining its effectiveness.
Despite sanctions, the West has failed to paralyze Russia’s economy. The Russian economy is growing, and the oligarchs’ assets remain secure, even if frozen. Most importantly, Russian oil continues to be bought and sold worldwide. Western leaders cannot decide what they want more: to truly punish Russia or avoid the economic problems that would arise. Even the U.S. initiative to impose fines for assisting Russian oil was halted due to fears of rising gasoline prices ahead of elections.
Putin’s Plans and Threats to Ukraine
Putin continues to focus on achieving his goals, allocating significant resources to military needs and motivating Russians to participate in military actions. He is expanding the conflict into NATO territory, supporting pro-Russian political forces, and spreading disinformation. The West’s response is weak, playing into Putin’s hands.
Ukraine finds itself in a difficult situation: on one hand, it has allies’ support, but on the other hand, this support is insufficient for a decisive victory. At some point, Ukrainian resolve may run out, and a peaceful agreement on Putin’s terms may become the only way out.
Future of Western Leadership
If Putin emerges victorious, Ukraine and its allies will suffer defeat. Although Ukraine will lose part of its territory, the war will end, and the country’s rebuilding process will begin. However, the West will lose much more. The inability to prevent the war and punish the aggressor will signal to others that borders are no longer inviolable.
The next conflict could arise in NATO territory. If the West could not contain Russia in Ukraine, how will it do so if Putin invades a NATO member country? Europe will no longer be safe.
Consequences for America
America could be the biggest loser in this war. Initially supporting Ukraine and then failing to fulfill its commitments, it lost its status as the leader of the West. Indecisiveness and political problems in the USA undermined the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The importance of helping Ukraine became a subject of contention within America. In a matter crucial for global stability, America failed to take responsibility for leadership.
Depending on the outcome of the US election, this reputational crisis could either be downplayed or seen as a triumph of isolationism. But even in such a world, America still needs allies who will support it in conflicts with China and other threats.
Now one thing is clear: this war has changed the world, and America’s place in it has become smaller.
