Despite the successful advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, Russia has not changed its strategy and decided not to transfer troops from Donbas to defend this region. This decision demonstrates the priority of the Russian command to maintain their positions in Donbas, even when their forces were unexpectedly attacked in another region.
Unexpected Advance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
According to sources, the Russian military command was caught off guard by the sudden advance of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. However, although some Russian forces were redeployed from Ukraine after the incursion into the Kursk region, it is unlikely that among them were units that fought on the front line.
It is obvious that the Ukrainian command miscalculated. The initial expectation of the Kremlin’s reaction to the advance is a logical response with deterrent actions in Kursk, such as deploying troops and equipment there. This would have sharply changed the situation on the Ukrainian fronts, helping the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve success.
Who Outplayed Whom
But war is the art of acting not as the opponent expects, and Russia demonstrated a very deliberate approach in this regard. The refusal to fortify Kursk immediately resulted in several negative consequences for Ukraine:
- the front lines significantly expanded;
- many units and equipment were engaged there;
- this further weakened the army in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions.
The loss of Ukrainian control over Pokrovsk, which is imminent, will effectively open the way for the Russian army to capture Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. For this goal, the Kremlin is willing to sacrifice Kursk, especially since it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army will be able to hold onto what they have taken. As Russian officials have commented, the priority is first to fully capture the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and only then to reclaim territories in the Kursk region. There is indeed a certain logic in this approach.
In the World of Promises
At the same time, the situation is further complicated by NATO’s failure to deliver on its promises for weapon supplies, which were planned and agreed upon during the July summit. The Ukrainian army plans its operations based on the resources it expects to receive. The delays in delivery have, in essence, resulted in the Kursk offensive not achieving the expected outcomes. Soldiers on the Donetsk front are particularly complaining about the lack of weapons and ammunition.
However, it would be wrong to say that the Kursk operation had no effect for Ukraine. In fact, it dealt a serious blow to Russian society and undermined the authority of both the military and Putin personally.
Evacuation of the Population from the Kursk Region
Despite the deteriorating security situation, residents of Russia’s Kursk region are not evacuating en masse to the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region. However, there have been isolated cases of relocation. The authorities in the Kursk region have announced a mandatory evacuation of the entire border Glushkovo district, indicating the seriousness of the situation on the border with Ukraine.
