Three weeks ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began an offensive operation in the Kursk region of Russia. During this time, Ukrainian forces have advanced dozens of kilometers, gained control of approximately 1300 square kilometers of territory, and liberated nearly a hundred settlements in four districts of the region.
Establishment of Control
Since mid-August, a military command has been operating in the city of Sudzha, led by General Eduard Moskalov. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the goal of the operation is to create a buffer zone to protect Ukraine’s border territories, not for annexation. Therefore, there are no plans for any voting or referendums there.
Outlook and Strategic Calculations
Forecasts regarding the duration of the operation remain uncertain as they depend on the plans of the General Staff and the Supreme Commander’s Headquarters. However, experts such as Oleksandr Musiienko believe that the buffer zone will expand, possibly by the end of the year, extending the front by 30-40 kilometers.
Withdrawal of Russian Forces from the East
One of the goals of the advance on Kursk is to draw Russian forces away from the Eastern front, particularly from the directions of Pokrovsk and Toretsk. According to the military-political leadership of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region by October 1, without withdrawing troops from key areas. Some Russian units have already been redeployed, leading to increased pressure in the Donbas region.
Further Actions
In the coming weeks, Ukraine plans to maintain defense on the approaches to the Mirnohrad – Pokrovsk line. This could be the final battle of autumn 2024. According to the forecasts of Oleksandr Musiienko, the active phase of combat operations will continue until October, after which a temporary lull is possible due to significant losses in Russian forces.
Directions for Further Advance
Some Russian military experts suggest that the operation in the Kursk region may be a diversionary maneuver before the main strike by Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia region. The goal of this strike is to break through the front and reach the nuclear power stations in Enerhodar and Tokmak. Although the direction is strategic, the question remains whether Ukraine has enough resources for such a large-scale offensive.
Autumn Breakthroughs and Spring Campaigns
Oleksandr Musiyenko does not rule out possible breakthroughs on the front in the autumn. The front remains dynamic, and if there is an opportunity for an offensive, Ukraine may take advantage of it by the end of the year. A larger operation may occur in the spring or summer of 2025. As for the Southern direction, Musiyenko considers it less likely, allowing for other possible scenarios.
