Political expert Maxim Nesvitaylov suggests that China is currently in the most favorable period for military actions, particularly due to a unique “window of opportunities” that is unlikely to repeat itself in the next few decades. Why are these opportunities opening up for Beijing right now, and what factors could contribute to escalation in the Pacific region?
“Nuclear Alliance” with Russia: How China Compensates for Military Potential
One of the key reasons for potential aggressive actions by China is its strategic alliance with Russia. Maxim Nesvitaylov believes that this alliance allows Beijing to achieve nuclear parity with the U.S. While the United States has always had an advantage in nuclear potential, the combined forces of China, Russia, and even North Korea are narrowing this gap. Such a “nuclear alliance” helps Beijing counter the influence of the U.S. and strengthen its position on the international stage.
Control over the South China Sea
China is actively expanding its influence in the South China Sea by creating artificial islands. According to Nesvitaylov, this region is effectively becoming China’s “internal waters.” The U.S. condemns such actions, but Beijing ignores criticism, showing its readiness for confrontation. This strategic expansion gives China control over important trade routes and military resources in the region, enhancing its capabilities in case of armed conflict.
Political Situation in the U.S.: Opportunity for Beijing
According to the expert, China may take advantage of internal problems in the U.S., which often escalate after elections. If unrest or social division increases in America, this will weaken U.S. focus on international politics. Beijing is likely to exploit such a situation to strengthen its positions in the region.
Demographic Factor: Challenges for China
Although China is one of the world’s most powerful economies today, the demographic situation there is worsening. Nesvitaylov notes that China’s population is decreasing due to the aging of the nation, while the United States, on the other hand, is experiencing growth thanks to migration. Furthermore, the American economy demonstrates higher rates of industrialization, creating potential for economic growth and military development.
Is China Ready for War?
Beijing may not be fully prepared for a large-scale military conflict yet, but a combination of favorable factors makes the current time the best for China if it decides to escalate the situation. According to Nesvitaylov, a similar window of opportunity may not present itself in the next 10-20 years. Therefore, experts believe that China may initiate large-scale military actions to strengthen its position in the region and on the global stage.
World Implications: What to Expect?
A potential escalation by China could lead to significant changes in the global balance of power. If China does engage in conflict, it is likely to force the United States and its allies to reassess their strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, it is important to monitor Beijing’s future actions, as they could be a harbinger of major shifts in global geopolitics.
