The war of Russia against Ukraine has been ongoing for almost three years, and during this time, the positions of the parties regarding possible peace terms have significantly changed. At the beginning of the invasion, Moscow put forward demands that essentially implied the complete capitulation of Ukraine, but now Russia’s rhetoric has become more “flexible.” In this article, we will analyze how Kremlin’s demands have changed, how they differ from the initial ones, and what possible consequences this has for diplomatic negotiations.
Initial demands of Russia: capitulation of Ukraine
At the very beginning of the war, in February-March 2022, Russia proposed conditions to Kyiv that practically meant the loss of sovereignty. The main points of the first “peace deal” that the Russian authorities sent to Ukraine included:
- Reduction of the Ukrainian army personnel to 50,000 soldiers (five times fewer than before the war).
- Recognition of the Russian language as official in Ukraine.
- Repeal of laws on decommunization, which was important for the Russian Federation from a symbolic point of view.
- Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO aspirations and neutral status.
- Agreement to external control of key sectors.
At that time, Russia expected a lightning victory, a change of power in Ukraine, and the establishment of a puppet government. That’s why such radical demands were made in the first weeks of the war.
Expansion of objectives: “Denazification” and “demilitarization”
From the spring of 2022, the official rhetoric of the Kremlin took on a different form. Abstract concepts began to be voiced: “denazification,” “demilitarization” of Ukraine, and “protection of Donbas residents.” These formulations became informational cover for the continuation of the war, without tying it to specific territorial or political demands.
A significant portion of these terms remained ambiguous. For example, “demilitarization” in practice could mean either reducing the amount of Ukrainian weapons or destroying the military capabilities of the state.
Current demands: recognition of annexation and “neutrality”
In 2023, Moscow officially annexed parts of Ukrainian territories – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Accordingly, Russia’s new conditions for Ukraine included:
- Recognition of the annexation of these territories and their status being enshrined in international agreements.
- Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from all “new regions” of the Russian Federation, including those currently under Kyiv’s control (such as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson).
- Guarantees of Ukraine’s neutral status and a refusal to join NATO.
- Lifting of sanctions against Russia.
Putin emphasizes that Moscow is ready for negotiations “tomorrow” if Kyiv fulfills these conditions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in response called these demands an “ultimatum.”
Why have the demands changed?
The change in the Kremlin’s position is due to battlefield failures and international pressure. Initially, Moscow had planned for a swift victory, but over time it became clear that Ukraine was not going to surrender. Western support for the Ukrainian army, including the supply of modern weapons, significantly complicated Russia’s plans.
However, the key moment was the official annexation of parts of Ukrainian territories. Now, these regions have become a central demand by the Kremlin in any negotiation scenario.
What’s next?
On one hand, Russia shows readiness to negotiate, but only on its own terms. On the other hand, the continuation of active hostilities indicates Moscow’s unwillingness to seek a compromise. Ukraine, in turn, puts forward its own proposals, but insists on respect for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Whether the parties will be able to find common ground remains an open question. However, one thing is clear: Russia’s change in demands is evidence that its initial plans have failed, and it is forced to adapt its strategy to new realities.
