The political context in which Russia finds itself demonstrates that President Vladimir Putin is forced to consider negotiation options, even if he does not want to. Resources for continuing the war are running out, and the strategy of delaying time is no longer working.
Why is Putin Forced to Seek Compromise?
The main dilemma of the Russian leader lies in the psychological gap between the goal of the war and reality. The return of the status of a global geopolitical pole is a mission that Russia has failed to achieve. Furthermore, the continuation of aggression leads to even greater dependence on China, contradicting the Kremlin’s goals.
Halting the war, on the other hand, will signify a personal defeat for Putin, as the whole campaign is built on his ambitions. This explains why Moscow is trying to shift the negotiation initiative in its favor.
Attempts to Influence the Negotiation Process
Moscow actively promotes its rhetoric aimed at delegitimizing the Ukrainian government and accusing Kyiv of terrorism. These narratives have two purposes:
- Disruption of negotiations by Ukraine. Putin may present unacceptable conditions, hoping that Kyiv will refuse to participate in the first round of negotiations.
- Influence on Ukraine’s political landscape. The Kremlin is considering options for intervention in future elections, including through public opinion manipulation and attempts to discredit political players.
What Prevents Putin from Raising the Stakes?
Resources for escalation are limited. The emergence of new threats, such as deploying missile complexes of the “Nut” type, does not change the overall course of the war. Attempts to undermine Ukraine’s energy infrastructure also do not yield the expected results. In such conditions, the only way out for the Kremlin is to turn negotiations into a tool of blackmail.
Is There a Future for Diplomacy?
Despite the tension, negotiations remain possible. Moscow uses escalation as a leverage to pressure the West, trying to create space for maneuver. At the same time, the success of the negotiations will depend on Ukraine and its allies’ ability to prevent the loss of initiative.
Strategic Trap
Putin has found himself in a strategic trap. On one hand, he cannot continue the war without further losses, and on the other hand, stopping hostilities would mean his political defeat. In this situation, it is important for Ukraine and the international community to continue coordinating their actions, not giving Russia the opportunity to dictate terms.
This period will be crucial for shaping a new security architecture in Eastern Europe.
