According to the GeoPoliticS website, after the resignation of Bashar al-Assad as the president of Syria, the country stands on the brink of new changes. Assad left the country, declaring a peaceful transfer of power. At the same time, the evacuation of Russian weapons from Syria is gaining momentum, and the issue of transportation through the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits is becoming critically important.
Prohibition of Passage of Military Ships: Decision Lies with Turkey
Ankara must officially confirm the ban on the passage of Russian ships through Turkish straits. Otherwise, a violation of the Montreux Convention could lead to a political crisis. Experts note that the resolution of this situation largely depends on the position of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Collapse of the Syrian Army: Details
The Syrian army, previously supported by Russian forces, has effectively abandoned its positions. Furthermore, the troops mostly just fled, even with numerical superiority. Such disorganization could have serious consequences, especially if the situation in Syria remains unresolved.
Russia Caught Between Two Fronts
The war in Ukraine, which has been ongoing for 33 months, has significantly depleted Russian resources. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the fall of the Assad regime demonstrates the weakness of the Putin regime, which is unable to conduct military operations on two fronts.
Since 2015, Russia supported Assad with airstrikes against opposition forces and used two bases in Syria. However, the Kremlin is now forced to reduce its military presence in the region.
Evacuation of Bases and Military Resources
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Russian forces in Syria have begun withdrawing their equipment from bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. In particular, the frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” and the cargo ship “Engineer Trubin” have already left the port of Tartus. Also, remnants of military equipment are being removed from the Hmeimim airbase.
Interestingly, the delivery of armaments from the Syrian port of Latakia is being carried out through neutral waters. It is known that a fishing vessel transferred military cargo to the civilian bulk carrier BLOOM, which is heading to Novorossiysk.
Military Equipment in Syria: What Remains?
Currently, Russia has air defense systems, missiles, ammunition, and up to 2,500 military personnel in Syria. Full evacuation requires access to the Bosphorus Strait, which is the shortest route to Russia.
However, if Turkey allows such passage, it would be a serious violation of the Montreux Convention, which could cause international resonance.
What Will Erdogan Decide?
The final word in this situation belongs to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His decision will determine whether Turkey will align with international law or cooperate with the Kremlin, thus violating international agreements.
This situation could be a turning point in the geopolitical game in the Middle East and reveal how Turkey will define its role in the region.
