The issue of energy routes has always been key on the geopolitical map of the world. One of the hottest conflicts of today, the Syrian war, is also related to gas interests. The role of Russia, Europe, Qatar, and Iran in this context turns out to be much deeper than it seems at first glance.
Gas Interests and the War in Syria
The Russian military campaign in Syria had several reasons, with gas motives playing a leading role. Moscow aimed to block the implementation of two potential gas transportation projects to Europe:
- Arab Gas Pipeline – a plan to transport Qatari gas through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to European markets.
- Persian Gas Pipeline – a route from Iranian reserves through Iraq to Syria, with further transportation of liquefied gas to Europe.
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- Norwegian gas,
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- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the USA and Qatar,
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- Gas supplies from Algeria and Azerbaijan.
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- Instability in the region. Syria remains a conflict zone, hindering infrastructure development.
- Political risks. The EU fears dependence on Turkey, which could become a new “gas monopolist.”
- Decarbonization. Europe is reducing consumption of fossil fuels by focusing on green energy.
Russia, as the main gas supplier to Europe, could not afford the emergence of competition, pushing the Kremlin towards military intervention that not only supported the Bashar al-Assad regime but also made the territory of Syria a zone of high military-political risks.
Russia’s Geopolitical Monopoly
Back in 2014, Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that a monopoly is beneficial only when it is “in one’s own hands.” The Russian strategy of blocking energy projects of competitors was also manifested in Ukraine when the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas disrupted Ukraine’s plans for gas extraction in the Black Sea and on land with the involvement of Western investors.
History of Qatari and Iranian Gas
Attempts to supply gas from the Middle East to Europe began in the 1960s. In 1970, the Astara-Kazi-Magomed gas pipeline was constructed, transporting Iranian gas to the USSR, while Soviet gas reached Europe through a swap scheme. However, these agreements were terminated after the Islamic revolution in Iran.
As for Syria, both the Qatari and Iranian routes were supposed to pass through its territory. However, both projects remained at the planning stage due to instability in the region.
Europe changes the rules of the game
Despite Turkey’s interest in building new routes, the European Union is changing its energy policy. Decarbonization, the use of renewable energy sources, and the lessons on energy dependency from authoritarian regimes have shifted the EU’s priorities.
Today, Europe is increasingly focusing on:
Thus, the European energy market is diversifying, reducing dependency on Russian supplies.
Why won’t gas from Qatar reach Europe through Syria?
Qatari gas has great potential, but the route through Syria now seems unrealistic due to several reasons:
Conclusion
Gas wars around Syria demonstrate how energy affects geopolitics. Russia, in an attempt to maintain its positions, creates obstacles for competitors. Meanwhile, Europe seeks new ways to ensure energy security, gradually reducing dependence on autocratic regimes.
Will Qatari or Iranian gas reach European markets in the future? This question remains open, but the world’s energy landscape is already changing.
