As 2025 approaches, more and more Ukrainians are pinning their hopes on Donald Trump as a potential mediator to end the hot phase of the war. But will Trump’s return to the White House really be a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Let’s try to figure it out.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive and New Hopes
Two years ago, Ukrainians believed in a swift end to the war, relying on a powerful counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This belief was based on the idea of the defeat of the Russian army and the collapse of Putin’s regime. Today, similar hopes are associated with Donald Trump, who, according to statements, plans to focus on establishing peace if he returns to power.
However, the realities are much more complex. The potential “peace Trump-style” does not promise a fair resolution of the conflict. Moreover, it involves what is known as the “Korean scenario” – freezing of hostilities without the return of all occupied territories. According to Gallup surveys conducted in August and October 2024, 52% of Ukrainians wish for a quicker end to the war even at the cost of territorial concessions. This indicates growing fatigue from the prolonged conflict.
Why is the “peace Trump-style” becoming popular?
- War weariness. Many Ukrainians prioritize ending hostilities over de-occupation of territories. This is related to daily losses, missile attacks, and mobilization that is altering the lives of millions.
- Strong populism. Trump is a master of bold statements that give people hope. His promises influence even those who understand the complexity of the situation.
- Difficulties of the official position. Publicly supporting a war “freeze” is still shameful or dangerous for many Ukrainians. This limits open discussion.
Illusions and Reality: What to Expect?
Will Trump be able to implement his scenario? The answer is not so simple. The future U.S. president does not have direct leverage over Russia. Ceasing hostilities is only possible if the Kremlin agrees to concessions. This depends on Moscow’s assessment of its own resources, losses, and prospects.
The unpredictability of Vladimir Putin’s actions remains a key point. His vision of a “conditional victory” in the war continues to be the main obstacle to peace.
Possible Risks of Massive Trust in Trump’s Promises
- False expectations. Millions of Ukrainians may expect a quick end to the war and be disappointed if it does not happen.
- Society’s relaxation. Excessive hopes in an external leader can weaken Ukrainians’ mobilization spirit.
- Political consequences. In case Trump’s peaceful plans fail, the responsibility could be shifted to the Ukrainian government, leading to internal conflicts.
What Should Ukraine Do?
The Ukrainian government needs to:
- Explain to citizens the real prospects of ending the war.
- Not place excessive trust in external leaders, especially Trump.
- Clearly communicate possible risks and ways to overcome challenges.
Society should approach politicians’ promises with skepticism. Hope for peace is important, but it should not turn into certainty that someone will solve all our problems.
Conclusion
Donald Trump may influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but one should not hope for its absolute effectiveness. Peace in Ukraine depends not only on external players, but also on our internal unity and readiness to fight.
Having hopes for “Trump the peacemaker” is possible, but it should not be forgotten: only Ukraine decides its fate, even in the most challenging conditions.
