On December 25th, there was an airplane crash in Kazakhstan that not only shook the local media but also the international community. The Embraer 190 passenger plane of AZAL airlines, flying from Baku to Grozny, crashed near the city of Aktau. There were 67 people on board, 38 of whom died. The official version of the crash is a collision with a flock of birds. However, numerous facts shared online raise doubts about the credibility of this explanation.
Traces of an Explosion: Version Involving Air Defense System
Immediately after the tragedy, assumptions started to appear on social media that the plane could have been shot down by an anti-aircraft defense system. In particular, images of the plane debris show characteristic damage that could be the result of a surface-to-air missile hit. There are clear signs of an explosion on the tail section, which are inconsistent with the official version of a bird collision.
According to the analytical publication Defence Express, the probable cause of the crash could have been the operation of the Russian Pantsir missile and gun system, which, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, is capable of functioning in automatic mode. This mode, according to experts, previously led to the downing of the Boeing-737 flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airline UIA in Tehran in 2020.
What is Known About “Pantsir-S”?
The Pantsir-S system was created as a modern air defense system to protect against drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles. In 2020, the Russian side claimed that this system is equipped with “elements of artificial intelligence” that allow it to autonomously detect and destroy targets without human intervention. However, the automatic mode of operation of “Pantsir” has caused several tragedies in the past.
Among the examples is the mentioned downing of the Ukrainian plane in Iran. In that incident, the missile was fired at the civilian aircraft due to a mistaken identification by the system.
Background: drone attacks in Grozny
Prior to the crash in Grozny, reports indicated drone activity and the operation of air defense systems, including the “Pantsir” system. It is likely that the system, set to automatic mode, may have perceived the plane as a threat, leading to a tragic mistake.
Public reaction
The news of the crash sparked a wave of criticism towards the official version. Experts and journalists doubt that a collision with birds could cause such significant damage. Furthermore, the crash site — near active military objects — only intensifies suspicions regarding the air defense systems.
Analogies to the Boeing MAU crash
The tragedy in Kazakhstan bears resemblance to the downing of the Ukrainian Boeing flight PS752 in January 2020, when the Iranian air defense mistakenly fired missiles at a civilian plane, resulting in the deaths of 176 people. Despite official versions of such incidents attempting to conceal the real cause, damage analysis and independent investigations often point to military system involvement.
What’s next?
Passenger airline disasters involving air defense systems raise global concerns about flight safety in regions with military activity. Countries must closely monitor the use of automated air defense systems to avoid similar tragedies in the future.
The Embraer 190 crash in Kazakhstan serves as another reminder of how dangerous the automation of military systems can be without proper oversight. An independent investigation should shed light on the true cause of the tragedy, and the international community should draw conclusions to prevent such events from reoccurring.
