The deployment of NATO peacekeeping forces in Ukraine is the subject of active discussions among Western countries. Three main scenarios of their potential presence are being considered, each with its own specifics and potential consequences.
Scenario 1: Active military presence on the front line
This scenario involves the deployment of NATO rapid response forces directly on the front line. Western aviation and armored vehicles will be ready for direct confrontation in case of Russian military advancement. This approach significantly enhances security guarantees for Ukraine, demonstrating the Alliance’s resolve to protect its partner. However, there is a high risk of conflict escalation, which could lead to unforeseen consequences for regional and global security.
Currently, this scenario is considered the least likely as it has the highest number of opponents.
Scenario 2: Defense of strategic objects
This scenario envisions NATO forces focusing on the defense of key infrastructure objects and important regions of Ukraine, such as the capital city Kyiv. This will allow the Ukrainian armed forces to release their reserves for active combat with the aggressor on other fronts. The defense of strategic objects by international forces may boost the morale of the population and military personnel, but this approach could be perceived as limited support that does not cover the entire territory of the country.
Scenario 3: Support and training without direct involvement in combat
The most likely scenario is one in which Western countries provide support to Ukraine in the form of air defense systems and assist in forming new units of the Armed Forces under NATO supervision and training. This approach allows avoiding direct confrontation with Russian forces while significantly strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities. According to The Telegraph, this option is considered the most acceptable as it reduces risks for NATO while enhancing Ukraine’s fight for independence.
As of today, this scenario is considered the most likely and feasible.
Current Status of Discussions
As of January 2025, official decisions regarding the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine have not been made. Discussions are ongoing both at the level of the Ukrainian government and among NATO member countries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky supports the idea of deploying European forces but emphasizes that it should not affect Ukraine’s NATO membership perspective.
Conclusion
Each of the proposed scenarios has its advantages and disadvantages. The choice of the optimal option depends on many factors, including the political will of NATO countries, readiness for risks, and strategic interests. Regardless of the chosen path, the main goal remains ensuring the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine amid ongoing aggression.
