There is an alarming trend in Ukraine regarding natural gas reserves. According to former official of the Gas Transmission System Operator Serhiy Makohon, current gas levels in underground storage facilities have reached a historical minimum. This is forcing “Naftogaz” to begin fuel imports in February, although purchasing during the summer months would have been more economically advantageous.
Causes of the critical situation
- High gas prices: In the summer of 2024, the price for a thousand cubic meters of gas was $300–350, whereas now it has risen to $500–550. Purchasing gas at such high prices could have a negative impact on the country’s economy and lead to increased tariffs for consumers.
- Increase in consumption: The average daily gas consumption in Ukraine is around 110 million cubic meters, and during cold spells this figure can rise to 140–150 million cubic meters. Domestic production covers only 52 million cubic meters per day, with the rest of the needs met through storage reserves and imports.
“Naftogaz” official position
Despite experts’ concerns, “Naftogaz” assures that there are sufficient gas reserves to get through the heating season. The company has also announced an increase in gas production in 2024 to 13.9 billion cubic meters, which should contribute to supply stability.
Possible consequences and prospects
If the situation regarding gas storage balance does not improve, the next winter could become even more challenging. High prices for imported gas and the necessity to purchase it in deficit conditions could lead to significant economic losses and increased tariffs for the population.
To ensure the country’s energy security, it is necessary to develop a strategy to increase domestic gas production, optimize consumption, and diversify supply sources. This will help reduce dependence on imports and ensure energy supply stability in the future.
