On December 6, 2024, an agreement was signed in Minsk between Russia and Belarus, which provides for the placement of Russian military bases and units on Belarusian territory. The duration of the agreement is at least 10 years, and it cannot be terminated before this period.
Expansion of Conflict Zone
The placement of Russian military facilities in Belarus may lead to the expansion of the conflict zone in the region. The proximity of the new bases to the borders of Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania creates additional risks for these countries, which are recognized not only in Kyiv but also in the European capitals of countries neighboring Belarus.
Primarily, Poland and Lithuania may feel an increase in the military threat on their eastern borders, which will require strengthening their defense capabilities and increasing NATO’s military presence in the region.
Threat to Poland and Lithuania
The placement of Russian military bases in Belarus directly affects the security of Poland and Lithuania. These countries are NATO members, and the reinforcement of Russian military presence near their borders can lead to an escalation of tension in the region. In response, Poland and Lithuania may initiate enhanced defense measures, including deploying additional Alliance forces on their territory.
Impact on Munich Security Conference decisions
Interestingly, the agreement between Russia and Belarus was signed just before the Munich Security Conference, in which a record number of countries are scheduled to participate this year. The main issues are always discussed before the start of the event, but this time it is anticipated that a sharp deterioration in the European security situation will require decisions to be actively made during the conference itself.
It is expected that the issue of placing Russian military bases in Belarus will be one of the main topics of discussion at the Munich Security Conference. Leaders of European countries and NATO representatives may consider measures in response to the strengthening of Russian military presence in the region. This may include a review of defense strategies, strengthening sanctions against Russia, and increasing support for countries feeling a direct threat.
Conclusion
The placement of Russian military bases in Belarus has a significant impact on security in Eastern Europe. This move could lead to escalation of tensions in the region and will require neighboring countries and the international community to take appropriate measures to ensure stability and security.
