The world is on the brink of major geopolitical changes. One of the loudest signals of this was the statement by the new Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz. The leader of the CDU/CSU bloc cast doubt on NATO’s ability to maintain its unity by June 2025. In his interview with German TV channels ARD and ZDF, he expressed the idea of the possibility of creating a new European defense structure. Is Europe really preparing for a life without NATO?
Reasons for doubts: Trump and weak US support
The main factor that made Merz contemplate the future of the Alliance is the behavior of the US administration under Donald Trump. According to the German Chancellor, Washington is showing increasingly less interest in defending European allies. The public statements by the American president raise concerns among European leaders as they undermine trust in the main Western defense alliance.
Merz openly acknowledges that Europe must be prepared for the possibility that the US may not fulfill its obligations under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which provides for collective defense in the event of an attack on one of the member countries.
Is Europe ready for a new defense alliance?
After the victory of the CDU/CSU bloc in the early parliamentary elections in Germany, Friedrich Merz received a mandate to form a new government by April 20. One of the first ideas he proposed was the creation of a European defense structure.
Merz suggests initiating negotiations between Germany, Great Britain, and France to create a new defense alliance capable of replacing NATO in case of its dissolution. Special attention is planned to be given to issues of joint nuclear weapons management and nuclear security.
Consequences for global security
A possible breakup or weakening of NATO would not only be a blow to Europe but also a global threat. NATO remains the most powerful military-political alliance that maintains the balance of power in the world. Its disappearance could pave the way for increased aggression from countries seeking to revise the existing world order.
What could be the alternative?
Today, potential candidates for a new defense structure in Europe include:
- European Defense Union (EDU) – the idea of creating an autonomous structure within the EU.
- Trilateral partnership of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – as a new defense bloc, with a focus on nuclear security.
- Enhancing the role of OSCE – transforming the organization into an effective security tool in Europe.
Conclusion: Time to prepare for a new era?
The question of replacing NATO remains open for now. However, Friedrich Merz’s statement clearly shows that Europe is already contemplating its future without US support. Will a new military alliance emerge by 2025? This depends not only on the political will of European leaders but also on how the United States will behave in the coming months.
However, one thing is clear: the world is on the verge of a new era of international security, where old alliances may fade into the past, and new, more adaptable structures may take their place.
