The leading military states of Europe — the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the countries of Northern Europe — have begun discussing a scenario in which they gradually take on the main responsibilities for defending the continent.
The reason for this is the unpredictable policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. His repeated statements about the possible weakening or even withdrawal of the U.S. from NATO have forced European countries to prepare for potential changes.
The discussions, currently held in closed format, are aimed at creating a strategy for the financial and military strengthening of Europe to convince the U.S. to gradually transfer responsibilities.
What does Europe propose?
European governments want to present a specific plan at the NATO summit in The Hague in June. The main points include:
- Increased defense spending — countries will commit to investing more funds in their own armed forces.
- Strengthening military capability — Europe must compensate for the absence of key U.S. military capabilities.
- Reducing dependence on American military bases — The U.S. currently has 80,000 troops in Europe and provides a significant portion of NATO’s strategic infrastructure.
However, a complete replacement of American forces is unrealistic – the nuclear deterrence currently carried out by the U.S. with the help of allies will remain an essential part of the continent’s security.
How are the U.S. reacting?
American diplomats assure that Donald Trump remains committed to NATO’s principles, but European leaders fear the U.S. might unexpectedly reduce military presence or change the format of cooperation.
One EU official stated:
“You need to negotiate with the Americans, but can you trust them?”
France and the UK take the initiative
France and the UK have already begun to act independently. They have become leaders of the “coalition of the willing” – a group of countries providing military support to Ukraine without the involvement of the US.
On March 15, a meeting of senior command was held at the British military headquarters in London to discuss future steps. In addition, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new negotiations in Paris regarding European security guarantees.
Is Europe’s independence from the US in NATO realistic?
Although the idea of strengthening European defense capabilities seems logical, it presents significant challenges:
- Financial constraints – even increased spending may not quickly replace American military infrastructure.
- Political differences – EU countries have varying views on NATO and the future role of the US.
- Timeframes – a complete replacement of American military capabilities could take 5 to 10 years.
Regardless of whether Washington agrees to a gradual redistribution of roles within NATO, Europe is already preparing for a future where its defense capabilities will depend on its own strength.
